The Russian delegation to Sofia will be led by Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko.
Bulgarian President Georgi Pyrvanov yesterday confirmed that there are differences between his country and Russia over the South Stream gas pipeline. This is thought to be one possible reason why Vladimir Putin has refused to attend the energy forum, which opens in Sofia today. The Russian delegation will be led by Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko.
The Sofia Energy Forum, to be held on Friday and Saturday, will consider ways to develop a common policy on energy and gas supplies to Europe and the principles to be observed by the countries involved in the process.
It was initially announced that the Russian delegation would be led by Vladimir Putin, but his trip to Sofia was cancelled early this week. Sergei Shmatko will lead the delegation.
Mr Putin's aides explained that the forum, although referred to as a summit by its organisers, will in reality be attended mainly by experts.
As Mr Pyrvanov claimed in an interview to the newspaper 24 Hours, "the refusal has been prompted by our differences on the energy accords, the main of which is the preservation of the agreements of January 18, 2008." Under those agreements the South Stream gas pipeline was to be a separate branch of the pipeline owned by Russia and Bulgaria on a 50:50 basis.
"We regard this as the starting point for further negotiations", the Bulgarian President said.
The Bulgarian press reports that Russia has been seeking the right to use Bulgaria's gas infrastructure for the needs of South Stream, but Bulgaria has declined.
Demonstrating his firm stand Mr Pyrvanov even declared that for Bulgaria today building a nuclear plant and diversifying natural gas supplies was more important.
How do international experts assess the situation? Andrew Neff, an analyst with IHS Global Insight, an international consultancy, told NG that to him the reason for Vladimir Putin's absence in Sofia is absolutely clear: it is impossible at this moment to sign any intergovernmental energy documents as further negotiations are required. At the same time he does not rule out that the dispute may be settled during Mr Pyrvanov's visit to Moscow next week.
According to Mr Neff, Bulgaria, as a country that has suffered most as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute in January this year is interested in stable supplies and diversification of its sources.
On the whole the Sofia forum will probably be used to give a boost to the Western Nabucco project. But its chances cannot be rated higher than those of South Stream, the expert says. South Stream, he argues, relies on real investment potential and is guaranteed to be filled by Gazprom. At the same time Nabucco faces some outstanding issues of gas transit via Turkey, the problem of raising enough investments and most importantly filling the pipeline.
On the whole, the expert believes that the forum is likely to see some arguments as the interests of consumers, transit and supply countries often clash. Investors too have their own interests.
Nabucco's chances cannot be rated higher than those of South Stream
By Artur Blinov