The world crisis and the weakening of the US, which may lead to that country's disintegration, will change the geopolitical map of the world. Over the next few years the former USSR countries will rally around Russia to form a new Eurasian Union with a single currency, parliament and Vladimir Putin as its ruler. The Eurasian Union will be modelled on the European Union as a result of which there will be three power centres in the world: China, EU-1 and EU-2. The author of this sensational forecast is Professor Igor Panarin, Doctor of Political Science from the Russian Foreign Ministry's Diplomatic Academy. Below he is interviewed by Izvestia.
QUESTION: When we published your forecast of the disintegration of the US six months ago it had a bombshell effect. You appeared on prime time CNN broadcasts, your articles were front-paged by the Wall Street Journal, you travelled the world with lectures, you were simply torn apart. Now a new forecast. Does it spell a new scandal?
ANSWER: I forecast the creation of the Eurasian Union back in 2006. But it is now that post-Soviet integration got a powerful stimulus from the economic crisis that leads America towards destruction. The world economic and political system is poised for dramatic changes. Now is a suitable moment to think about the future world architecture. Its early outlines are already discernible. China has backed the Russian proposals to create a world supercurrency to replace the dollar. That absolutely fits into the logic of the relations between China and Russia. China should be the prime mover in integrating the Pacific space and Russia in the post-Soviet space underpinned by national currencies. The rouble and the yuan can become centres of attraction for other countries, the new world supercurrency ACURE (the yuan will be the basis for the creation of the Asian currency unit, or ACU, which together with the rouble and the euro will form the ACURE (this is my suggested name).
"I would refer to the leader as sovereign"
Q: Such ideas have long been mooted but separatism usually stands in the way.
A: The situation that is emerging is unique. Yesterday many factors prevented integration processes in the post-Soviet space, but today the logic of the world financial economic crisis calls for new actions that will bring success. Several breakthrough international meetings took place in recent days. In Moscow, an agreement on Transdnestr and Moldova was signed, the first breakthrough in the last ten years. One should note the longest ever talks between Russian and Belarussian Presidents. Important events will be held under the auspices of the SCO, EurAsEC, and CSTO. It is crucial for Russia to develop a model or formula for Eurasian integration.
Q: Do you expect that this formula will produce a qualitatively new alliance?
A: Yes, it should be an alliance of states modelled not on the USSR but on the European Union. We see that the EU, while integrating new members, has developed some balances. But even the EU has created the posts of President and Foreign Minister. The post-Soviet space needs a similar inter-state entity. I would describe the leader of that entity as the sovereign, the word Machiavelli liked to use.
Q: Who will become the sovereign?
A: The sovereign in the post-Soviet space will be Vladimir Putin. His main credentials are, first, that he commands authority among the elites of the former post-Soviet republics and, second, that he has delivered good results during his eight-year presidency of Russia. Our country is centralised, stable and it has passed a hardness test in August. For eight years Mr Putin was building up a vertical power structure, including in the North Caucasus, and that system has withstood some severe tests.
Q: Machiavelli said that a sovereign should combine the qualities of a lion and a fox. The lion is strong and the fox can outwit the most cunning of opponents. Do you think Putin fits that description?
A: A sovereign chooses the image of the fox or the lion depending on the situation. Throughout his eight-year presidency Mr Putin was for the most part a fox. He had to restore Russia, bring the regions together and centralise the land. In principle, he has achieved his goal. But on occasion he had to act as a lion, as in Chechnya, when delivering his "Munich speech" and during the conflict in South Ossetia... Today we see that the United States is losing the role of the world leader. You may or may not agree with my prediction of the dissolution of the US in 2010, but most world leaders already admit that the States are losing the role of the world leader. Its role and influence in Eurasia will undoubtedly diminish and a vacuum will be formed. Russia will have to choose between acting as a fox and waiting for other players to strengthen their influence in the post-Soviet space (the EU, China, Iran, Turkey...) or acting like a lion and declare its sphere of vital interests and build a belt of good neighbours, but most importantly, ensure economic integration.
"The rouble should form the basis of integration".
Q: Does that mean that the economy of the former Soviet Union should be restored?
A: Not only of the Soviet Union, but of the Russian Empire, which had taken centuries to build. Integration should be based on the economy because if we seek to turn Russia into a world financial centre, the rouble must become one of the underpinnings of integration.
Q: Could the Georgian attack on South Ossetia provide a pretext for integration?
A: In fact the integration of Eurasia started in August 2008, when Russia stunned the world. When I visited China, the political scientists there told me: neither we nor the Americans believed Russia would run the risk. The Americans and the Chinese had a different vision of the situation: they thought that we would stay out of the conflict and as a result would be squeezed out of the South Caucasus. Naturally that would have put paid to any talk about integration of Eurasia. But the moment of truth had arrived.
Q: That changed the attitude to Russia, and not only in the Caucasus.
A: Yes, of course. We see that accusations and endless attacks on us have practically stopped. Just the other day an EU commission admitted that Georgia had been wrong in that conflict. We have not only prevented genocide in South Ossetia, we put the whole thing on an international legal basis by concluding agreements on the deployment of military bases... A colossal amount of work has been done over the past six months. Today, in spring 2009, economic, political and military prerequisites exist for the start of integration processes in Eurasia.
"We again meet China in the Pacific".
Q: Vladimir Putin is currently the Russian Prime Minister. If you predict that he will be the ruler of Eurasia how do you see the transfer of power?
A: The "President-Prime Minister" system is not very stable in Russia. Our whole historical experience attests that two power centres cannot coexist long strategically. The optimum scheme would see Mr Putin eased out of the post of Prime Minister. Everything should happen step-by-step: the creation of organisational prerequisites in 2009-2010, the formation of organisation mechanisms in 2011 and by 2012 the stage may be set for the emergence of the new Euro Union-2.
Q: How does the creation of a Eurasian state square with your forecasts that the US should fall apart in the coming years?
A: Looking at the geopolitical pattern in the event my forecast of the disintegration of the US comes true, the EU would include Atlantic America into its sphere of influence, Russia would reclaim Alaska, and China would gradually integrate the Pacific space. We will once again meet China in the Pacific.
Q: That leaves three global power centres?
A: Yes, the EU-1, Russian-led EU-2 and the Chinese commonwealth. Three big power centres. The second level of world integration is BRIC, which would form a nexus of two power centres, above all with India and Latin America. Over time Russia will have to leave the Middle East as a key player. I have already mentioned the US. The European Union will become the key player in the settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and the SCO will deal with the India-Pakistan conflict, Afghanistan and Iran... It adds up to a fairly stable world system.
Q: What countries could become the members of the Russian-led Eurasian commonwealth?
A: All the post-Soviet republics, for now without the Baltics. But first we must integrate with Belarus and Kazakhstan. In that sense Mr Nazarbayev's proposal to create a single Eurasian currency can be identified with the notion of the "transferable rouble" that existed within the Soviet-led Council for Mutual Economic Assistance.
"The headquarters of the Eurasian parliament must be located in St Petersburg".
Q: Will Moscow be the capital of the Eurasian commonwealth?
A: No, it would be logical to make St Petersburg the integration centre. For starters it could be the location of the Eurasian Bank and the headquarters of the new international organisation. A charter and organisational principles should be developed. We have some useful experience in that field: think of the CSTO, EurAsEC, and the SCO.
Q: But these organisations do not have the authority to tackle the tasks you have set.
A: That is true. That is why we need the European Union model. By the way, the EU has been moving towards centralisation gradually. The first steps are the single parliament, the single currency, the single constitution, army, etc. The fact that our Constitutional Court has already moved to St Petersburg is very fortunate in that sense. The headquarters of the new Eurasian parliament must be located in St Petersburg.
Q: But the European Union has a rotating presidency.
A: We won't have rotating presidents. We will have a personal president, for five years, for example, but for no more than two terms in a row. Theoretically, Mr Putin could head up the new state between 2012 and 2017 and then be re-elected for a new term.
Q: And then it would be the turn of Dmitry Medvedev?
A: And then perhaps it will be Dmitry Medvedev. But this is not the important point, the important point is that it would give a powerful impetus to the integrated states' economies. The severed links and integration patterns would be restored. Our industry needs new markets in order to cope with the crisis. We see that the Baltics are on their last legs, even as part of the EU, we see the grave situation in Ukraine. The South Caucasian republics are facing great difficulties. So, restoration and integration of internal demand not only in Russia but in the surrounding countries would prompt an economic and technological leap forward. We have no other option if we are to cope with the current financial and economic situation. I think we should consider this concept first of all at the United Russia Congress because Mr Putin is that party's leader and the party dominates government bodies. Next it should be considered together with the national elites of Kazakhstan and Belarus. A panel of experts should start working on these issues. The work should be public. We must take this chance and I am sure that we will have popular support in Russia and in other former Soviet republics. But I would like to stress again that we should be very careful with respect to all the national trappings. We should respect the national elites and determine the representation quotas in the Eurasian parliament: all these niceties should be strictly observed, no Big Brothers. All are equal partners.