Russia is pursuing active diplomacy to achieve a revision of the Brussels gas agreements between the European Union and Ukraine. According to Kommersant, it will be a key issue during a visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Germany on March 31.
Prior to the visit, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin published a plan of Russia's actions in case Gazprom is barred from participation in modernising the gas transportation system of Ukraine. Moscow is threatening to revise its relations with the EU companies investing in the Russian energy sector and, simultaneously, to adjust plans for the purchase of gas transportation equipment in Europe (the general plan for the development of the Russian gas sector submitted to the Government yesterday is yet to be finalised).
Russia has launched its opposition effort against the Brussels agreements along two lines. On March 24, the Security Council of Russia passed a decision to postpone Russian-Ukrainian intergovernmental consultations, which planned to discuss granting a $5 billion loan to Kiev. This dealt a blow to the positions of Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko considering that Russia has put a stake on her in anticipation of the Ukrainian presidential election in January 2010.
Thus Moscow sent a clear signal to Ms Tymoshenko that she might lose Russia's support in her internal confrontation with President Viktor Yushchenko. Kommersant's sources in the Russian Government say that the date of consultations has not been fixed yet and that "it fully depends on the Ukrainian partner's line of behaviour and readiness to heed the interests of Russia as a gas supplier."
It seems Moscow intends to apply its former strategy on the European front and mobilise its supporters in the European Union. Yesterday, the Russian President's press service said that on March 31, Mr Medvedev would visit Berlin on his way to the G20 summit in London to hold talks with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "In view of the current situation, the issue of the Brussels declaration (of the EU and Ukraine - Kommersant ) is of prime importance and it will be surely discussed with the Chancellor," said a Kommersant source at the Russian Foreign Ministry. "Germany is our traditional partner in the EU, and we are implementing quite a few joint energy projects together; therefore, Berlin should share our view of the situation."
Moscow is ready to take a very tough stand in its dialogue with Europe. On Monday, Mr Putin voiced Russia's line of conduct in case Europe refuses to make concessions. Mr Putin said that the attempts to ignore Russia's interests would change Moscow's attitude to all energy projects in Russia with the participation of foreign capital. "This concerns coal production, nuclear power engineering and power generation, the sectors into which European companies have made huge capital investments worth billions of dollars. This also concerns oil and gas production and transport," Mr Putin said.
The Prime Minister mentioned, in the same context, the purchases of "gas transportation equipment" in Europe worth $26 billion. "If Russia's interests are ignored, we will have to revise the principles of our relations with our partners," he warned.
Never before, apparently, has Russia threatened European capital in this way. The Kremlin's tough stand and its readiness to go to the extremes are explained by the fact that the issue of control over the Ukrainian gas transportation system is of major importance for Moscow. According to Kommersant, the Russian Security Council discussed this issue last summer. The discussions resulted in a decision that only the transfer of the Ukrainian gas transportation system into concession to a consortium with Gazprom's participation could guarantee Russia the status of an "energy superpower".
Europe seems to have taken Moscow's threats seriously enough, so it is ready to move its conflict with Russia onto a political plane. In commenting on Mr Putin's statement, EU spokesman for the Energy Commissioner Ferran Tarradellas Espuny said in an interview to Kommersant that when the issue is formulated in this way, it concerns not only energy but also political relations between the European Union and Russia.
Alexander Gabuyev