Russian experts remain at a loss trying to figure out whether the country's economic system will follow the European or the Russian model amid the current global crisis.
During crisis conditions, developed countries typically experience increased job cuts but with stable wages. In contrast, the post-Soviet model, which developed in Russia in the 1990s, experienced relatively few layoffs while being subjected to substantial wage cuts. The recent opinion polls conducted by the Yuri Levada Analytical Center indicate that Russia is developing a new economic model. A 5% cut in salaries was reported in October 2008 and a 26% salary cut was observed in the February of 2009. At the same time job cuts amounted to 6% and 20% respectively. Both indicators are growing, which points to a model that is worse than the other two. In any case, the public is trying to find answers for two principal questions so typical of Russia, namely who is to blame and what is to be done.
Last December's survey revealed that 39% of Russians questioned shared the view of their leadership on the origins of the crisis, blaming the US and other western country's economic policies. Twenty two percent blamed major western banks and corporations, while another 22% considered Russia's economic policy the main cause. A similar poll taken in late winter showed a change in responses, with fewer respondents blaming western banks and only 35% pointing a finger at the US Government. Respondents blaming Russia's leadership increased by a half to 34%.
Overall, Russians seem to be more critical of their own President and Prime Minister, though their approval ratings remain solid, with Dmitry Medvedev at 71% and Vladimir Putin supported by 78% of Russians. Still, Medvedev's first year in office was the subject of harsh criticism. The poll revealed that 54% of those surveyed believed that the economy in Russia worsened as Medvedev took office, while 58% thought that Russians' well-being had gone downhill since then. Fewer respondents named the increased crime rate, corruption or civil rights as the biggest issues in Russia. Positive answers increased regarding to the country's international status.
The President himself is not the major subject of criticism. According to the poll taken in February of 2009, 34% of Russians believe that actual power rests with Putin, while only 12% thought Medvedev was Russia's actual leader. Half of those polled thought the two shared power equally.
But even while most Russians believe that Medvedev has power, they do not view the current economy in Russia to be the result of his decisions or actions. Thirty eight percent of Russians assume that Medvedev is entirely faithful to Putin's policies, while another 48% think that he continues to implement them "for the most part" - which means that everyone who believes the current economic breakdown is rooted in the Russian Government's actions also believes it is due to Putin's policies.
Alexei Levinson is head of the department for social and cultural research at the Yuri Levada Analytical Center.
Alexei Levinson