Vladimir Putin explains to Ferenc Gyurcsany the difference between Nabucco and South Stream.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin met Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany at the Government Reception House yesterday. Our special correspondent Andrei Kolesnikov thinks it was the most nervous meeting with a European representative since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis.
After signing the agreements on the building of the Hungarian stretch of the South Stream pipeline and a gas storage facility he delivered a stern rebuke to his interlocutor who said that the more pipelines Hungary has the better.
Tension was in the air from the very beginning when Vladimir Putin and Ferenc Gyurcsany met for a one-on-one talk. The Hungarian Prime Minister was the first to start a quarrel.
Everything might have come off smoothly. Vladimir Putin began by magnanimously recalling that in the six years that Mr Ferenc Gyurcsany has been Prime Minister, Hungarian exports to Russia had increased nine-fold. In fact he gave the credit for it personally to Mr Ferenc Gyurcsany (although he hinted that it was Ferenc Gyurcsany who thus made the export-oriented segment of the Hungarian economy dependent on Russia).
At that point Mr Ferenc Gyurcsany said that although Hungary belonged to that wing in the EU which favoured strategic cooperation with Russia, it did not mean that it agreed with Russia on everything.
"Undoubtedly, questions remain, he added, on which we differ and on which we disagree."
So, Ferenc Gyurcsany set up a position even before the negotiations stared. In fact, he had made that position known even before these talks. A Russian negotiator told Kommersant that as early as January 6, 2008, at the height of the Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis, the Hungarian Premier had sent Vladimir Putin a letter somewhat rashly blaming the crisis not only on Ukraine but also on Russia, to an equal degree, which of course was guaranteed to enrage Vladimir Putin.
Moreover, Mr Ferenc Gyurcsany accused Russia of the breach of a contract (treading on a sore toe as the Government and Gazprom officials were at that very moment repeating to TV audiences in Russia and the EU that Gazprom had never let down suppliers over the last 40 years and would never let them down for at least as many years). As one of the Russian officials present at yesterday's talks said, the Hungarian Prime Minister "demanded from Putin to immediately resume supplies hinting at possible complication in the relations if it did not happen at once".
All this was bound to make an impression on Vladimir Putin. Apparently he had been looking forward to Ferenc Gyurcsany's visit to Moscow. Now he was in Moscow, and started his talks with Vladimir Putin as if he were on the verge of a nervous breakdown.
"But we have no dissent," the Russian Prime Minister responded and added something in a low and menacing voice, though the actual words were drowned out by the clicking of cameras, because Mr Ferenc Gyurcsany's face assumed a bewildered expression that asked to be put on camera.
Mr Putin was probably saying that the Russian Government was all in favour of cooperation with Hungary without any reservations (this was the sarcastic part) and not that people in Russia agreed with everything and that the "marches of dissent" were not part of Russia's political landscape (at least for him).
After the talks which did not last all that long, about an hour and a half, two agreements prepared for the visit were signed: on the building of the Hungarian section of the South Stream pipeline with a capacity of 10 billion cubic metres a year and the building of an underground gas storage facility connected with the pipeline. Joint Russian-Hungarian enterprises will be created, and in both projects Gazprom will be involved (agreements on behalf of Russia were signed by Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller).
During a press conference, without waiting for leading questions that were sure to be asked, Ferenc Gyurcsany decided that the best defence is offense and chose to attack. The cheerful man who throughout the press conference was looking around the room as if seeking support (thus probably confirming the conviction of the top Russian officials that Hungary was unable to play an independent political role and could only play up to the big boys, especially in the case of the construction of Nabucco, and only rarely could behave in a reasonable way, as in the case of the construction of the South Stream) began by saying that "in politics they play several instruments at once."
He explained that Hungary was a member of the EU, was actively cooperating with the NATO states (thus confirming the worst fears) but "has never concealed that it seeks partnership with Russia".
"Our two countries, Ferenc Gyurcsany added still playing with fire, have different histories, but we must understand that some time ago the world has become small and the earth has become flat... I mean, nobody can cope with their problems on their own - neither Russia, nor Hungary".
The Hungarian Prime Minister apparently meant that in this flat but still multi-polar world (Hungary being one of the promising poles, especially after yesterday) not only Russia could extend a helping hand to Hungary but also Hungary to Russia.
"I believe, Ferenc Gyurcsany went on, that two pipelines are better than one and three are better than two".
He looked around the room triumphantly as if inviting the audience to give due to his bold statement.
"Let them all pass through Hungary, the Hungarian Prime Minister said. It is still better than having one pipeline which passes through Ukrainian territory (at least that should have pleased his Russian colleague who was sitting by his side with a mysteriously absent-minded expression on his face - A.K.). Nabucco means supplies of gas that do not come from a Russian source."
It was clear that Mr Ferenc Gyurcsany occasionally forgot where he was giving a press conference.
"And besides, the world does not stand still, it is so dynamic, there is so much energy in the world and so much of everything else, the volume of sowing seeds is growing so fast, and I have no doubt that Hungary will continue to supply them to Russia," he ended his speech on a triumphant note.
By directly saying that Russia depended on the supply of Hungarian seeds Ferenc Gyurcsany was probably warning Vladimir Putin against pointing out Hungary's dependence on Russian gas supplies. Mr Putin did not respond because the format did not envisage any comments.
Asked by a Hungarian journalist whether a solution on Malev (a Hungarian airline experiencing financial problems) had been found, Vladimir Putin replied that "on our side all the necessary decisions have been taken". Later he added that "incidentally, we are talking about several tens of millions. Aeroflot's subsidiary, Bridge Air, is buying a controlling stake in Malev and the money has already been allocated (the head of Aeroflot, Mr Okulov was conspicuously absent at yesterday's talks on the fate of Malev, fuelling rumours about his imminent resignation).
Ferenc Gyurcsany was asked whether he considered Nabucco and South Stream to be projects of equal value. The journalists seemed to be trying to set up the Hungarian Prime Minister. It was an easy job yesterday.
"There is no more danger for a country, he replied, than being dependent on a single pipe. Early this year we were looking at the end of the pipe from which nothing was flowing".
As he was saying it Ferenc Gyurcsany looked so distressed as if it was not about a Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis, but about a deeply felt personal problem.
"If two pipelines come out of Russia, the Hungarian Prime Minister said, it would be much better. And if there is also a pipeline from Central Asia it would be still better for Hungary, it would make it feel safer. Many people believe that the decision on the pipeline is a political issue..."
He stole a look at Vladimir Putin.
"Well, no, this is an issue of state sovereignty (a political issue, after all - A.K.), Mr Ferenc Gyurcsany continued. The main thing is not to be dependent on anyone or anything".
As he saw it, it meant being dependent on everyone at once.
"Japan, he said, buys liquefied gas from seven sources. I too would like to buy gas not from three, but from seven sources."
Mr Putin looked at his counterpart with undisguised surprise. Seven sources was news for him.
"When there is one seller it is hard to bargain for a price, Ferenc Gyurcsany said candidly. Russia too would not be happy if it had only one buyer..."
One could see from Vladimir Putin's face that nothing could make him happy any time soon. But Ferenc Gyurcsany was carried away. He had a lot of things to say.
"We were recently in the Gulf and we are trying to build a terminal in the Adriatic through which we will buy liquefied gas, he explained as if to suggest that Hungary was committed to drastically diversify the gas supplies. Forgive me for being so long-winded".
"I too will be long-winded," Mr Putin finally said. "You have asked about the deadline for the construction of South Stream. The project will be completed by December 31, 2015... We expect to pump at least 10 billion cubic metres of gas through Hungary. The total capacity of the pipeline is 30 billion... There are no problems with funding. None at all. There are no problems for this kind of project."
I saw a twinkle in Alexei Miller's eyes at these words. He had not expected such a powerful and undisguised support on the part of Mr Putin.
The Russian Premier was so specific about the deadline because it contrasted sharply with the total lack of certainty about the timeframe, financing and the filling of Nabucco, so Vladimir Putin could not resist the temptation of demonstrating his certainty.
"I fully agree that supplies have to be diversified, he added. We have no problems with source countries. But there is a problem of transit countries (consequently, Hungary too was a problem - A.K.). This is the problem. With gas, either you have it or you haven't. Russia has it. We have enough gas to meet our internal demand and that of our Western partners for another hundred years".
I had a feeling that Vladimir Putin was about to say "another fifty years" but changed his mind at the last moment.
"These are experts' data, he hastened to add. As for other routes, we have nothing against it. But one has to understand that Nabucco, for example, increases and not reduces the number of transit countries (meaning, problems would multiply - A.K.)... Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia ... and then the pipeline cannot be filled without Iran, for example.... And of course we would be glad if the project was implemented some day..."
After the mention of Iran in connection with this project nothing could make one believe that Vladimir Putin would be glad for his colleagues even in the remote future.
"And if, for example, we fail to build South Stream," he continued, turning to Ferenc Gyurcsany, which I doubt... then we will liquefy gas and sell it at a price that is 20% higher... it is always higher: and Europe will lose its natural competitive edge."
Finally, Vladimir Putin commented on another transit country, Ukraine.
"Thank God, there are some responsible people in Ukraine who have signed contracts for supply and transit (i.e. Ms Tymoshenko - A.K.). But this seems to be against the grain with some people (Mr Yushchenko - A.K.). People in ski-masks tried to seize the signed transit contract from the national oil and gas company (it was the first time that we heard what the people in ski-masks were looking for at Naftogaz - A.K.). God alone knows what the people who give such orders are thinking about.
The remark had nothing to do with Ferenc Gyurcsany. But after that remark he could appreciate the advantages of his position which only a few minutes earlier seemed pretty grim.
By Andrei Kolesnikov