A year ago to day, Dmitry Medvedev won the presidential election with 70.28% of the vote. A total of 52,530,712 people voted for Russia's youngest leader.
Medvedev's first year was long in terms of political events, and also very difficult, what with the war in the Caucasus and the economic crisis. He could have limited his efforts to clearing up the consequences of these events, but he has not. He advanced a large-scale programme for developing democratic institutions ("participatory democracy"), initiated a reform of the courts and a national anti-corruption plan, formed a personnel reserve, and proposed a concept for European security.
The President did not follow the agenda proposed by other people and the situation, but formed his own agenda.
Medvedev is not an impulsive leader. His decisions are based on a comprehensive analysis of events by professionals, prospective planning, and long-term understanding of national interests. Always ready for dialogue, he has not departed from a formulated position. He does not like ineffective and retarding solutions, people and structures, as proved by the recent dismissal of four governors. Most importantly, he always acts with the future in sight.
It takes a lot of courage to say that the state will honour its social commitments during an economic crisis. Medvedev definitely has this kind of courage.
Values
Medvedev is a president of goals and values. In his view, the values upheld by the authorities should be organic. Most importantly, "Man must become the main value," he says. The President's humanism became apparent when he was responsible for the priority national projects.
The President's choice comprises four basic values - the supremacy of law, a state ruled by law, a market economy, and unconditional respect for property rights. A liberal conservative, he relies on political traditions, national democratic institutions, and support from the majority of the people.
"Speaking of the political regime, the regime and state structure, democracy is clearly an absolutely fundamental element," Medvedev said.
Political competition has always been a major value for Dmitry Medvedev, and he continues to rely on it now that he is pursuing practical politics. He has clearly outlined its boundaries - legality and a systematic approach.
"It is a competition within the boundaries of law between those political forces that are set for a normal competition for a better future for Russia," he said.
The threats are also apparent: "The main thing is to prevent competition from turning into a tough anti-constitutional rivalry. Our country had enough of that in the 20th century."
Majority
The new majority that developed as a result of the parliamentary and presidential elections has been the President's main support. This is a trilateral majority where public trust in Medvedev, Putin, and United Russia forms a single whole. Medvedev is using the "greater contour" method. When addressing different audiences, he not only puts forth the details of his view of the situation, but also increases his political space by involving new groups of people and elites in his sphere of influence.
As a result, a detailed and frank dialogue with different groups of people and elites is becoming the basis of the country's national agenda. The quintessence of that method is the President's weekly interviews, styled after Franklin D Roosevelt's Fireside Chats, broadcast by the Russia Channel. These talks also have a therapeutic effect, as Medvedev's measured speech and quiet temperament are good qualities during a crisis.
Focus
Here is how the president defines the balance between long-term and current priorities: "We outlined our immediate priorities for the next 15-20 years eight years ago; Russia's development goals have not changed since then."
What are these priorities?
The Constitution must not change: Russian democracy should develop "on the existing constitutional basis". Other unchangeable priorities are reliance on United Russia and Russia's foreign policy: "Our foreign policy will remain pragmatic, predictable and aimed at protecting Russian interests, just as it was during the rule of my predecessor, President Putin."
The contract with society initiated by Mr Putin in the late 1990s also remains inviolable. It is not based on the trite "bread for loyalty" formula but on such crucial values as stability and development, as only development and creation of a modern knowledge-based economy will make Russia competitive and ensure a befitting life to Russians.
And what about changes?
The political reform
Medvedev's political programme, which he formulated in his address to the Federal Assembly, is consistently democratic. As the president said, it will "help to enhance the quality of public representation and fuller account of people's interests." Participatory democracy is the cornerstone of Dmitry Medvedev's domestic policy.
The president clearly wants to facilitate the development of all citizens and structures with something to contribute to society. Evidence of that are the Right Cause and Nikita Belykh, who has been appointed governor of the Kirov Region.
If you are active and take initiative, you will be put on the reserve of future leaders and subsequently become part of the establishment. If you effectively uphold public interests, you will get the levers for influencing the municipal authorities. If you have a majority in the local legislature, you can propose gubernatorial candidates to the president. If you get 5% of the vote at parliamentary elections and form parliamentary groups in one-third of regional legislatures, you will have one or two seats in parliament and will not have to canvass for signatures during the next elections. At the same time, the parties that win over 3% of the vote can rest assured that they will receive budget allocations.
Taken together, this comprises a kind of a "hierarchy of impetuses" for enhancing the involvement of political forces and public groups in the country's policy and life.
Opinions of the President's policy in the past few years may differ, but one thing is certain - it was a policy pursued in the interests of the majority, for the first time in Russian history. The participatory democracy of Dmitry Medvedev is aimed at giving guarantees to the systemic minority, from second-tier parties to active local public groups.
Foundation
Development of democratic institutions is not unlike doing repairs on the political system, even if they are not capital repairs. The crucial element during repairs is the foundation. The expanded involvement of people, public organisations, and political parties in the political process is naturally balanced by the stability of presidential power and the strength of parliament. This is one of the reasons why the presidential and parliamentary terms have been extended.
Old democracies have similar foundations. Efforts to create a stable political foundation are very important for Russia, especially since the unrestrained spread of democracy in the Soviet Union in the late 1980s was proof of its weakness.
Russia is a big and complicated country, and thus takes a long time to develop and implement measures in this or that sphere, and coordinate them with the elites and the people. The impetus provided by the country's leader sometimes takes longer than the four-year term to reach its outlying provinces. The recent reforms lasted very long, and Medvedev's political programme is also stipulated for years.
Medvedev said that the presidential and parliamentary terms should "serve the development interests of the state" and may be changed in the future. "We can recall examples of a seven-year term, which allowed for the resolution of many problems at the time when De Gaulle's Constitution was created. Later, French society decided that it was no longer necessary and made requisite amendments. We'll live and see how it goes [in Russia]. For now, we will work within these terms, but who knows what will happen in 30 or 40 years?"
The future
Indeed, no one can predict what may happen in the distant future. Moreover, respected experts are divided even over two- and three-year economic development forecasts.
One thing is certain, however: the leaders who can react quickly and as adequately as possible to challenges, above all crises, will be the winners.
President Dmitry Medvedev is one such leader. His political future looks quite positive, if not cloudless. Specific scenarios of socioeconomic and political development depend on many factors, but those who can quickly rise to satisfy the people's demands will most likely remain in control of the situation.
In the conditions of a high consolidation of the elite, the President can definitely do so - and he will.
Dmitry Orlov
