Early opinion polls show that while financial reserves are dwindling, confidence in the Prime Minister and the President is not.
Eight Muscovites who recently lost their jobs took part in a focus group. They sat at a table in a small room answering the moderator's questions. The recorded video contains an almost two-hour-long informal conversation on what is to be done and who is to blame for what is happening. "What can you say about Putin?" was one of the questions. "Is the camera still on?" one of the female participants inquired facetiously. "You don't have to answer," the moderator countered. "Sorry, I was joking. I feel quite normal about Putin," the woman said, setting the record straight. "In general, I love our presidents. I love them very much. I have an irrational love for both presidents," another participant chimed in.
The latter had recently shut down his business. "I like [Putin], let him continue to do something".
The banking crisis, the industrial downturn, layoffs. The Government has devalued the rouble and is now pondering what to do about the budget. It is time to review the early results. This is what some leading sociologists were doing last week. Their findings are likely to please the Kremlin or the White House.
Yes, the public's mood has soured. Even those whom the crisis has not yet affected feel that things will get worse. However, these sentiments are unlikely to erupt into massive protests. Opinion polls indicate that the crisis has hardly made a dent in the popularity of Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. "What has Putin got to do with it?" was a typical answer to the question about who was to blame for the plight of the economy. One might have expected that the crisis could prompt doubts about the government, but in reality, it's the other way around: reserves are dwindling but confidence in the Prime Minister and the President is as high as ever. This is what people want to preserve, so that the present time does not look too much like the chaos of the 1990s.
TEMPORARY PROBLEMS
It goes without saying that people have become much less hopeful. Sociologists have a set of questions that they use to derive the consumer confidence index. "A dramatic 30 point- drop between May and December," Alexander Demidov of the Russian branch of the marketing institution GfK told a conference at the Higher School of Economics last Wednesday. "It is true that expectations have been dashed," echoed Igor Zadorin, Director of the Tsirkon research group. A sense of alarm has been building up over the last two years, Marina Krasilnikova of Levada Centre said; people were worried about housing and utilities rates and there was a looming threat of inflation. People became really worried not in September, when the stock exchanges plunged for the first time, but in November, when unemployment became the main threat.
The members of the Moscow focus group looked quite relaxed despite the fact that they had recently lost their jobs. One was the head of the sales division, another had his own business, a third installed security cameras, a fourth was a lab assistant, etc. Tatyana worked as an economist at a jewelry shop. When she was fired, she flew to the Dominican Republic. "We have more time for sleep," says Yelena, a former HR manager who likes to look on the bright side. Pavel, who also had his own business, now spends time with his three month-old baby and is even glad that he can afford it.
The Muscovites look well-prepared for the crisis. They are not afraid. "This is not the first time. You can expect anything in this unpredictable country," Mikhail, a building worker, reasons. And he goes on: "You have a chance to turn over a new leaf; they say you have to change your way of life every five years." "I am quite relaxed. I will try some other thing," Sergey, a logistics expert, agrees. Tatyana, after returning from the Dominican Republic, started looking for a job and in the process called on many of her acquaintances with whom she had been out of touch for a long time. The end of one stage and the beginning of a new stage in life: this is how she sees the crisis after losing her job. "The Moscow victims of the crisis have a sense that the crisis is a temporary problem that one has to wait out," says Maria Volkenshtein, director of the Validata sociological service. She had conducted focus groups in Moscow and Voronezh.
Things are not as good in Voronezh. Industries are at a standstill. "We work a three-day week, the tire plant is idle, the aviation plant is switching to a four-day week and is laying off 20% of its workforce," says Tamara, a middle-aged engineer. Voronezh apparently enjoyed two years of relative prosperity. "2006 and 2007 were the best years in both construction and the manufacturing industries. A slump began in 2008," Mikhail, a builder, chips in. "But wasn't there a feeling that things were looking up?" "Yes, there was. We felt that way a couple of years ago," Yelena, an accountant, replied. "Former accountant," she adds, correcting herself with a wistful smile.
Economic growth during the eight Putin years was perceived differently in the capital and in the provinces. The capital enjoyed prosperity, but for the provinces it was more like a pause between two crises, Ms Volkenstein summed up. In the cities there was strong industry, then the factories stopped, then they started working again, and now they have stopped once more. "In short, we are back to square one," the Validata director told the conference. "In that sense, there is much more pessimism [in the provinces]. And the abstract arguments that a shakeup may be for the better are of little comfort."
YOU ARE THE SAME AS EVERYBODY ELSE
Packing everything up and going to the Dominican Republic - is that the right reaction?
"Of course. What's the point of sitting and bemoaning the crisis?" Yelena, an HR officer from the Moscow group, replies. In Voronezh, meanwhile, when people go to visit friends they have taken to bringing along their food. "If you go visit someone, you have to buy something," Tamara said. "Bad people do nothing but visit their friends to save on meals," says Yevgeny, a former member of a management staff at a Voronezh plant.
Hardship is easier to bear when it is shared. According to some of the women in the Moscow focus group, one of the strongest comforting factors is that many people are getting fired, not only you. "If it happened only to me, it would mean that I am a good-for-nothing," explained Natalya, who used to work at a garment factory. On the whole Muscovites, hope that the crisis will let up by the autumn. If it lasts longer than that, Tatyana, a former economist, would settle for a lower wage. Businessman Pavel bragged that he could go to work in a collective farm if the printing services he provided for advertising people would no longer be needed.
Sociologist Volkenstein believes he is just talking a big game. In reality, the Moscow middle class is not prepared to climb down the social ladder. The picture in Voronezh is different. "The chief editor of the local newspaper now works as a loading hand or something like that. He is OK. Well, not quite OK, but he is resigned," Ms. Volkenstein reported to a conference at the Higher School of Economics.
Wealthier Muscovites are more reluctant to change their habits. Still, Timofei Barsov, a market specialist from COMCON, has noted that coffee-houses are being deserted while the queues at McDonalds are growing longer. Galina, who used to work at the Voronezh tire plant that was recently shut down, lamented that she could not afford some of the food she had just gotten used to since 1998, when her consumption dropped even more dramatically. "At the time the stocks of all kinds of sausages, smoked stuff, and the like were affected. Sausages are affected by any crisis," Mr Barsov recalls. "Also, all kinds of fish. Imported spaghetti. The dynamic for chocolate was appalling."
We have yet to see anything like that, though the newspapers write that foreign car sales have dropped. "Based on objective indicators, no serious crisis changes have taken place," Mr Demidov of GfK told the conference at the Higher School of Economics. Yes, the sales of electronics goods have dropped, but only because people "have given up fancy gadgets". Olga Kuzina of the National Financial Studies Agency reported that people have reverted to saving up currency, but Ms Krasilnikova of Levada Centre noted that this only applied to those who have hard currency, while the majority of people "are not in the currency market". Sociologists are still wondering why there was no run on bank deposits.
THE BLAME GAME
Another focus group involved Moscow students. They will soon be seeking a permanent job and know that there are not enough vacancies to go around, but are fed up with the talk about the crisis at home and on television. "I hear that some bankers are to blame for the world crisis. Only I don't exactly remember the country," says Tatyana, a student. "America," Artyom prompts her. "Did you hear it on television? Do you trust what they say on television?" Maxim tried to inject a facetious note. He is studying to be a programmer. "I do," Tatyana answered seriously.
Sociologists have found that people trust all the news about Mikhail Saakashvili and Victor Yushchenko. "I have heard that Saakashvili is a pawn in the hands of the American President," says Tatyana. "Yushchenko is controlled by the Americans," says Denis, a sales manager who recently lost his job. Nobody challenged them. The gas conflict in January undoubtedly diverted people's attention away from domestic problems. "They did the right thing," Yelena, an HR manager, said approvingly about Putin's actions. "They should have done it long ago. I don't know why they had to endure it for so long," Sergey, a logistics expert, said, agreeing with the propaganda.
However, when it comes to the crisis, the prevailing feeling in Moscow and in Voronezh is that government television is not the most reliable source of information. "Where do you learn about what is happening?" they were asked. "From our work record book," quipped Yelena, who recently lost her job. In a January VTsIOM poll, 21% of respondents said that newscasts exaggerated the scale of the crisis and were panic-mongering. The respondents unanimously said that they were fed up with talk about the crisis. Television, newspapers, anti-crisis adverts in the metro. We've had enough. However, the pollsters suspect that people are not being sincere.
From what people say, the following picture emerges. Even if the Americans did not engineer this crisis specifically to hurt Russia - and that is a widespread point of view - they are at least fully responsible for it before history. People are reaching back in their memories. Denis, a former department chief, even recalled the Caribbean crisis, when Western ideals gained ground in Russia. Since then, everybody wants to sit in the office and nobody wants to work in industry; there is no production.
"Now the bubble has popped. It all comes from the West. It's the white-collar folk," says economist Tatyana, who was recently been sacked from her office and visited the Dominican Republic. Students readily responded to the conspiracy theory. "After all, there is a plan for a world government," a female student by the name of Masha recalled. "That topic has long been discussed, so one has to believe it," said Artyom, who until recently worked with a financial company.
Not only America is to blame. According to some data, the Kremlin is increasingly critical of the regional authorities and the regional media. Sociologist Volkenstein sensed this to be true in Voronezh: people are being laid off and the governor doubles the housing and utilities rates. People bear a grudge against Moscow and the authorities in general, yet nobody puts the blame on Putin and Medvedev. They are like psychological props in times of crisis. If they too are held responsible, the world will again be perceived as chaotic, sociologists say. "Public pessimism would have been even greater but for the reservoir of confidence in the top leaders accumulated during the years of successful development," Krasilnikova of Levada Centre writes in her report.
The respondents are not planning to take part in any rallies. They have no desire to join either the opposition or the United Russia rallies. "In support of the government's policy? I think it's odd to demonstrate in support of yourself," Pavel, a former businessman says, trying to turn it into a joke, while students remarked cynically that there was no point in joining rallies unless you were paid for it. They have no support for the Government's concrete moves. The introduction of customs duties on foreign-made cars failed to gain the support of any of the eight members of the Moscow focus group, with the exception of one student whose parents worked at the KamAZ truck plant. Vladimir Petukhov of the RAS Sociology Institute sums up: "People do not feel that Russia is a train without a driver about to jump the rails, as was in 1998". Nonetheless, sociologists are united in noting that people are not expecting anything good.
Artyom Vernidub