The printed version of the programme aired on February 13, 2009
WHEN WILL PUTIN BE SACKED?
MAIN TOPIC
THERE IS SPECUALTION ABOUT IT, BUT THERE IS NO FRICTION
The Constitution vests the President with colossal powers and leverage. Besides, the Kremlin walls have always possessed a kind of magic due to which the incumbent of the top office in the land, however weak he may be, builds up political muscle by the hour and quickly becomes the unchallenged leader in the country. Is Dmitry Medvedev the first exception to that rule or does he just need some more time?
The other day The Washington Post suggested that Mr Medvedev is beginning to distance himself from Vladimir Putin's economic policy: The Russian President is casting off the mask of a docile helpmate of his powerful predecessor, prompting speculation about friction between them. The newspaper got it right: There is speculation, but probably no friction.
There was a lot of speculation when Mr Medvedev's hint in an interview to Bulgarian television was thought to have sent an important signal to the Russian elite: From now on the actions of the Putin Government could be freely criticised. The Washington Post in its article wrote that Mr Medvedev had placed Mr Putin in the position of a potential scapegoat. Just today the media reported that President Medvedev intends to regularly brief the Russian people about anti-crisis measures by going on the air on the main TV channels. The first such talk will be aired by the Vesti Nedeli news programme on Sunday. "It is very important to tell the truth and speak about the difficulties experienced by the whole world and our country," Mr Medvedev says.
Does it mean that President Medvedev is sending a new signal to the elite hinting that the previous President and current Prime Minister was not telling the truth about the real state of affairs? Or does Mr Medvedev's intention to regularly address the nation through state television channels indicate that he is going to assume part of the responsibility for the consequences of the crisis and thus play the role of a lightning rod?
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WINNERS AND LOSERS
* The President of Udmurtia, Alexander VOLKOV, will keep his job. There have been rumours in recent months that the head of one of the country's least successful regions would resign to be succeeded by a representative of security agencies. Now that Dmitry Medvedev has extended Alexander Volkov's term, even the Communists threw their support behind the President of Udmurtia.
* The Murmansk Governor Yuri YEVDOKIMOV is one of the losers. In the heat of his polemic with the local political elite he made some unfortunate remarks about the United Russia. "No party that has based its plans and triumphs on lies, falsehood and slander has ever scored victories," he said. That sentence may lose Mr Yevdokimov his party membership and the support of the federal centre.
* Vagit ALEKPEROV, the head of LUKOIL, was among the winners. His company obtained a loan on favourable terms without government assistance: Gazprombank lent it $1 billion at 8% without collateral.
* The head of the Russian Football Union and Minister of Sports, Vitaly MUTKO, is in a spot of trouble: Guus Hiddink will work with Chelsea on a part-time basis. That is logical because Mr Hiddink is actually in the pay of Roman Abramovich. But the incident shows that the country's top sports official has no clout.
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CONVERSATION WITH AN EXPERT. WILL THE GOVERNMENT BE SACKED SOON?
Today we are talking with Vladimir MILOV, former Deputy Energy Minister of Russia.
Q.: Does the current situation seem like a rerun of what happened in the second half of the 1980s?
A.: Yes, we witness an obvious attempt to preserve the former socio-political model at any cost. In the late 1980s the USSR was forced to ask the West for loans to finance its crumbling system. We may see a repeat of that. Because of the budget deficit, because Russia is squandering its financial reserves, government officials have been openly speaking about borrowing abroad to cover the budget deficit (which may amount to 10% of the GDP this year).
Q.: You have written in your blog that a conference of oil price experts will be held in Moscow in March.
A.: Top experts on the international oil market, who take part in the summits of the G8 and the International Energy Agency, told me that they had been invited to the Kremlin on March 2-3 to discuss world oil prices. This is a critical issue for the Russian authorities and of course Messrs Medvedev and Putin would like the oil prices to go up. At present the price is about $45 per barrel. To continue the former policy they need the price to go back to $70-80. This year's budget can break even if the price is $70.
Q.: When you were a Government member was the price of oil lower than it is today?
A.: It was $22.
Q.: How did you manage to achieve a 10% growth?
A.: The economy was geared not to government spending, but to private investments. The Government pursued a judicious budgetary policy. The budget was designed proceeding from the price of $21 per barrel. The state controlled the spending on the civil service, the special services and the corporations. Not surprisingly, the country was growing and the budget balance was achieved with the oil price at $20.
Q.: How do you see the relations within the Putin-Medvedev tandem?
A.: I do not believe that Mr Medvedev is distancing himself from Mr Putin. Mr Medvedev is still weak and Mr Putin can easily stop such attempts. However, there can be political changes because the current model cannot cope with the crisis. There is a conflict of interests within the political elite, but these people have a strong self-preservation instinct. If they see that the boat has sprung a leak all the factions will come forward with their solutions in order to prevent the boat from sinking. If the economic problems provoke social protest, especially if the protesters make political demands, the situation may become dangerous. Suggestions that the Government should resign now come not only from the members of the opposition. I think that as economic problems worsen such sentiments will increase. The ruling elite, committed to self-preservation, will probably have to throw the ballast overboard, i.e. Mr Putin, who has discredited himself as a leader.
Q.: Do you see a repeat of the August 1991 coup attempt as a possibility?
A.: I think there are two scenarios in which Mr Putin would be toppled by the elite. The first is another coup, i.e. joint actions of the security agencies. A more probable script would see the oligarchs come up with a single candidate (most probably not a member of the siloviki) and try to promote him.
Q.: Do you discuss the various scripts with your Solidarity colleagues?
A.: Of course Solidarity should be prepared for all scenarios, including the most radical ones. Mr Zyuganov has issued a directive to his party to prepare the resources for a possible early parliamentary election. So, many see a radical scenario as a possibility. Russia is entering a period of serious economic problems that may last 4-5 years. We have no mechanisms for exit from the crisis and we have a bad investment climate. Many experts say that our resources will last for about a year. I think our Government will see its popularity fall, increasingly losing its grip on power and then the self-preservation instinct will force the powers that be to introduce political reform.
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You can hear the programme Vlast (Power) live every Friday at 8 p.m. Moscow time on Ekho Moskvy radio station
