VTB bids for the company's shares
It came out yesterday that there are two bidders for a stake in Polyus Zoloto, the largest gold producing company in Russia. In addition to Suleiman Kerimov's group, which claims 37% of the shares, VTB-Capital has filed a bid with the Federal Anti-Monopoly service for 50% less 1 share. Unofficial sources say that VTB-Capital is also acting in the interests of Mr Kerimov. However, VTB did not reveal this fact to the bureaucrats and the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service may thus turn the bank down. Suleiman Kerimov's bid is to be considered by the Foreign Investment Commission, headed by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
The head of the FAS Industry Control Directorate, Alexei Ulyanov, said yesterday that the service was preparing to turn down the VTB bid for 50% minus 1 share of Polyus Zoloto. "The thing is that the bank refuses to name the ultimate beneficiaries - both the buyer and the seller in this transaction," he told Kommersant. If the information is disclosed in a timely manner the deal may be approved." The FAS is to publish its decisions no later than February 17, when the three month deadline for considering such bids runs out. The bid was filed on November 17, 2008. A source close to VTB says that the bid was filed by VTB-Capital "in the client's interests".
Up until now nothing was known about the VTB bid, but the FAS has already announced that a foreign company acting in the interests of Suleimen Kerimov, the owner of NAFTA Moskva, was bidding for Polyus shares. Alexei Ulyanov specified yesterday that the bid is for 37% of the shares. "But the fate of the bid depends on the decision of the Government Foreign Investment Commission headed by Vladimir Putin, while the FAS has the second vote," Alexei Ulyanov notes. "Besides, under the law a submission by a foreign company has to be considered within six months." FAS representatives did not specify who the seller of the shares is.
At present, ONEXIM Head Mikhail Prokhorov and Interros owner Vladimir Potanin each own 30% stakes in Polyus. This is the last major asset remaining in their common ownership after the division of their business. The analysts polled by Kommersant say that both contenders probably counted on getting each other's stakes. "The formula 50% minus 1 share was apparently prompted by the Law on Joint-Stock Companies," Alexei Morozov, chief analyst with UBS, explains. The fact that it would have been impossible to buy about 20% of the shares in the market on the sly lends credence to this statement.
However, one source who knows the situation at Polyus well says that the stakes of both owners may be involved because "the securities of both are pledged to VTB." Interros declines to comment on the situation, while ONEXIM says that "they did not receive proposals on the sale of their stake in Polyus". A source close to the group maintains that its stake in Polyus "is not pledged to anyone". Another source familiar with the situation is sure that the VTB is also acting in the interests of Suleiman Kerimov and that the Interros stake may be bought.
Analyst Marat Gabitov from UniCredit Securities is also convinced that Vladimir Potanin will be the seller. "According to our data, Mr Potanin owes the bank about $2.8 billion with a 16.7% stake in Nornikel as collateral," the expert says, adding that the Polyus shares owned by the head of Interros could be used to repay that debt. "By selling Polyus at the current price the money could be invested in other assets that are now much cheaper but have a considerable growth potential", says Maria Kalvarskaya, head of the equity market analysis department at KIT Finance. Yesterday Polyus shares rose at MICEX by 3.69%, while the general index dropped by 0.2%. The company's capitalization in Russia is $6.75 billion. However, in the opinion of Yevgeny Ryabkov of Pioglobal Asset Management, the annual shares growth potential of Polyus, in the light of the forecast average price of gold in 2009 of $1000 per ton, "does not exceed 15%".
Dmitry Smirnov