Editorial note
In a Sunday interview with Bloomberg Television, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin expressed "cautious optimism" about relations between Russia and the United States. Mr Putin said he was picking up "certain signals" indicating that Barack Obama is going to change US foreign policy priorities, especially those concerning the deployment of a missile defence shield in Europe and NATO membership of Ukraine and Georgia.
The NATO-Russia Council (whose work was halted during the South Ossetia war on NATO's initiative) met for an informal session yesterday. Official contacts between Russia and NATO will resume in February, Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's Ambassador to NATO, said yesterday. Some reports say that Russia and NATO will expand their cooperation on Afghan transit (delivery of non-military cargoes to Afghanistan via Russia).
At the same time, Poland's Defence Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, one of the candidates for NATO Secretary General, said that the alliance did not seek expansion, and that NATO membership of Ukraine and Georgia was a "distant prospect." Perhaps time is ripe for a new détente? Last year relations hit the bottom. The oil price this year is not what it was. Moscow is sending signals to the new American administration in the hope that it would alter its policy towards Russia. And oil is not the only issue: A new president has been elected and he needs to build new relations. The whole world is now looking to Obama. But the question should be asked the other way around: Is Washington expecting anything from Moscow?
Yes, Obama talked very carefully about the anti-missile defence in Europe and expressed a desire to draw up new agreements on nuclear weapons control (this is a thorny issue: the START-1 treaty will expire in a year's time and with it the system of mutual control). But the first factor does not depend on Russia: The Democrats were opposed to a missile defence area in the Czech Republic and Poland before Obama was elected, and in this respect Obama is toeing the party line. The second factor is technically inevitable.
The Bush administration, as a matter of fact, did not have a special Russian policy, nor will Obama have one. Amid tremendous expectations he is facing more serious challenges: the world economic crisis, relations with China (on which the US economy is heavily dependent, unlike Russia's), the Iraq war, the operation in Afghanistan, Iran, and control of weapons of mass destruction.
The US has little trade with Russia, and is not interested in its policy. Relations with Russia are unlikely to be among the US top ten priorities. Moscow's standing may improve simply because the new administration will review it, something which is inevitable.
The Kremlin and the Foreign Ministry either failed to understand this fact, considering Russian-US relations to be the focus of international relations, or deliberately touted this argument for home consumption. Strange decisions, however, are made occasionally, as a result. To counter the deployment of anti-missiles in Europe, Russia threatened to install its own missiles near Kaliningrad. This "asymmetrical reply" pleased patriotically minded individuals, but scared Europe and complicated further understandings. It might not have been necessary to make the reply at all after looking at the political and economic situation in the US (an inevitable comeback of Democrats to the White House, the crisis, and the freezing of the project). In his interview, Mr Putin's words about optimism concerning Obama stood next to charges that the Bush administration was to blame for all Ukraine's troubles, including the January gas war. Obama is unlikely to feel happy when he hears this.
Non-admission of Georgia and Ukraine to NATO is more a delay due to the situation in these countries. It can hardly be considered as a result of Russia's foreign policy.
Russian and US interests now really converge only on nuclear weapons control and Afghan transit. It would be logical to focus on these areas, at the same time re-learning the lost skills of dialogue and ways of solving problems to mutual benefit.