The Ukrainian opposition recommends the President to look at the way Belarus handles the gas issue
At midday yesterday, when Yulia Tymoshenko was at Kiev Airport preparing to fly to Moscow, all the Ukrainian President's men were celebrating the feast of the Baptism of Jesus bathing in a hole in the ice covering the Dnieper. The leader of the opposition Party of Regions, Viktor Yanukovich, who had warned in advance that doctors had forbidden him to take part in the Baptism water rites proceeded to criticize the yet-to-be-signed gas agreements. The Ukrainian politicians behaved as if the gas conflict had been closed although they intended to use it as a political trump card inside the country.
Beginning from last Saturday, when Yulia Tymoshenko and Vladimir Putin managed to find a compromise on the political aspects of the gas problem during a two-hour closed meeting, the Ukrainian presidency has not said a word of comment on the situation. Bohdan Sokolovsky, the Ukrainian President's representative for international energy security, explained on Sunday that the situation could only be evaluated after the official documents on the price of gas for Ukraine and the terms of its transit in 2009 were signed.
The representatives of the Ukrainian government and Naftogaz said nothing concrete about the Tymoshenko-Putin accords either on Sunday or on Monday. All that was known was that Gazprom had promised Naftogaz a 20% discount on gas in exchange for keeping last year's transit tariff rate. The Supreme Rada Chairman, Vladimir Litvin, announced yesterday morning, citing his talks with the Russian Ambassador to Ukraine, Viktor Chernomyrdin, and Naftogaz head Oleg Dubina, that the average annual gas price would be $250 per 1000 cubic metres.
However, the Party of Regions, citing its own sources, has claimed that the price may be as high as $350-370 in the first quarter. Some deputies believe that the opposition in parliament was preparing to charge the government with corruption in early February when the plenary sessions of the parliament resume. Alexander Yefremov, a Rada deputy, explained to the Obkom news agency: "From the information I have, on December 31 last year the Russian Federation offered Ukraine to buy gas at $237. The transit rate was to be $1.75. If the Ukrainian side turned down the offer and wa going to sign an agreement on less favourable terms, then it meant corruption pure and simple. Obviously, it has nothing to do with concern for the state, let alone its citizens, but simply with lining one's pockets".
Viktor Yanukovich said that a price over $250 was unsustainable for the Ukrainian economy. On Sunday he publicly admitted for the first time that a better option for his country would be discount gas prices in exchange for concessions on the issue of management of the gas transportation system (GTS). Mr Yanukovich recalled that Minsk, which transferred half of the shares of Beltransgaz to Gazprom, was receiving cheap Russian gas on a stable basis. Mr Yanukovich suggested that the Ukrainian authorities take a closer look at that experience. Incidentally, today Viktor Yushchenko and the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko are due to meet in Chernigov. The news of the meeting was announced yesterday afternoon. Over the last four years, the Ukrainian and Belarusian presidents announced an upcoming meeting many times and each time postponed it indefinitely at the last moment. The Ukrainian President's Office did not confirm that the meeting would be devoted to gas issues and relations with Russia. As of yesterday it did not reveal the agenda of the talks.
Earlier Russian Premier Vladimir Putin confirmed to journalists that Russia was interested in the privatisation of the GTS, but noted that Kiev was making a "fetish" of transit pipelines. Gazprom's spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov added yesterday that the Russian company was concerned about the technical condition of the Ukrainian gas transit system: "It is something of a time bomb that threatens gas supplies to Europe in the future." Although the Russian side initiated a technical inspection of the Ukrainian GTS by European experts early this year, the issue has still not been resolved. The EU and the United States, which had earlier signed framework agreements with Ukraine on possible participation in financing the modernisation of the gas pipelines, took no follow-up actions. The official reason cited was the world financial crisis and the start of economic evaluations of the feasibility of building bypass gas transit routes. Ukrainian experts noted yesterday that Yulia Tymoshenko and Vladimir Putin would not be able to sidestep the issue of the technical status of the GTS. However, specific decisions could only be made in spring and only if Tymoshenko's political opponents do not bring about her resignation as early as February.
A source close to the Ukrainian Prime Minister told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that early resignation might even be good for Ms Tymoshenko from a political point of view. If this were the case, she would resign immediately after the settlement of the gas crisis, riding the crest of success. And this would happen at the start of the presidential election campaign. Not that anyone in Kiev knows exactly when the presidential election will be held. According to the Constitution, it should be held in a year's time. But the Supreme Rada recently passed a law on special investigating commissions which have the power to probe the activities of the head of state. Theoretically speaking, that allows for impeachment proceedings which were previously illegal in Ukraine. Now the deputies do not rule out that the Rada may try to impeach Mr Yushchenko.
However, the situation inside Ukraine depends not only on public and behind-the-scenes dealings between the main political players, but also on external forces and public sentiments. For example, Russia's decision yesterday to limit military-technical cooperation with the countries that supply arms to Georgia was seen in Kiev as dealing a blow to President Yushchenko's position.
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The heads of Ukraine and Belarus will synchronize their watches in Chernigov
Tatyana Ivzhenko
