By Andrei Kolesnikov
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin met again in Moscow yesterday, and signed a 10-year contract on natural gas supply to Ukraine.
Tymoshenko said it was a historic moment, while this correspondent panicked, thinking that nothing was said about a transit agreement. My fears were allayed only late at night.
Tymoshenko came to Moscow yesterday to sign the agreements hammered out last Saturday, but as soon as she entered the Russian government building, she and Putin held a one-on-one meeting, which could only mean that she had brought new conditions to discuss. It was an alarming sign.
During the hour and a half that they talked behind closed doors, Yushchenko expressed his opinion of the situation. A member of his administration said that if the price of Russian gas for Ukraine were to be calculated every three months on the basis of the European formula, it should also be applied to the price of gas transit.
In principle, the decision was in line with the agreements reached by Mr Putin and Ms Tymoshenko and did not contradict the preference transit price for 2009, because it stipulated a 20% discount on the price of Russian gas for Ukraine. According to the information of business daily Kommersant, this is exactly what Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko discussed behind closed doors.
Some time after their meeting began, they summoned Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and later said they also wanted to see Naftogaz CEO Oleh Dubyna. They left the room together, and their faces revealed that an end to the drama was close at hand.
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko, Gazprom Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev, and Ambassador to Ukraine Viktor Chernomyrdin, as well as their Ukrainian colleagues, waited in a small room for Tymoshenko and Putin, who came out together. This time only a huge brooch shining in all colours of the rainbow on the Ukrainian Prime Minister's raspberry blouse hinted at her fashion ambitions.
The two Prime Ministers announced that Miller and Dubyna would sign a gas supply agreement for 2009-2019. Miller covered the document with his left hand when signing it. An experienced negotiator who has attended all kinds of public functions, he knew that modern photo and video cameras can "see" the smallest details from a very long distance. Oleh Dubyna did not seem to be thinking anything; he was apparently happy.
"After lengthy and difficult talks, we have reached agreements on gas supply and transit," Putin said, stressing the word "transit." Indeed, by that time Miller and Dubyna had not signed a gas transit contract, although Putin and Tymoshenko pretended that there were no remaining problems when they made their statements.
"Transit is what matters above all for the European consumers. Gazprom has been instructed to fulfil their requests in full. I'd like to express my condolences to the consumers who have been put in this difficult situation - not through the fault of Russia," Putin said, although the last words were uncalled for.
Putin added that the contract was effective beginning January 1, 2009, that "all kinds of intermediaries" would be ruled out, and that this is a long-term agreement signed for ten years, "the same as the agreement on transit price, to be calculated according to the European formula".
This could only mean that Mr Yushchenko took part in the talks, even though he did not attend them.
The discount for gas transit was confirmed for 2009 but not for 2010.
Nobody mentioned Yushchenko, whom Putin probably stopped considering as a negotiator or even as a decent person after he learned that the Ukrainian President had ordered the delivery of weapons to Georgia in the war against South Ossetia. At the same time, Putin praised Tymoshenko's virtues, saying that she "assumed the responsibility in a difficult situation for decisions that helped settle the problem."
According to that logic, Yushchenko's actions in that situation betrayed his impotence.
"I hope we have reached a final conclusion today," Putin said, apparently meaning that Yushchenko might have other ideas on the matter.
"The main thing is that we have approved a formula for gas supply and transit," Tymoshenko said. "This leads us to believe that there will be no complications at the end of the year. The gas issue was holding us back... This is a historic moment promising us ten years of tranquillity."
Her enthusiasm was understandable, but not quite believable. When Ukrainian politicians speak enthusiastically about ten years of tranquillity, problems can be expected by the end of the week.
Tymoshenko said that Ukraine would resume gas transit as soon as Gazprom turned on the tap.
In other words, there have never been any problems with technical gas, just as Kommersant wrote in the two previous issues. Ukraine was bluffing, and Russia was trying to redirect its bluff against it, using it to win the support of Europe's energy giants, who remained strangely quiet throughout the situation.
Nobody mentioned compensation of damages for stolen gas, debts, or fines; instead, everyone wanted to come to terms with each other. Indeed, it was probably more important to agree than to keep quarrelling over minor issues. Procrastination could lead to death - the death of Ukraine's gas transport system. On the other hand, some of those who attended the talks did not want to become political corpses, at least not there and then, in front of a shocked audience.
Anyway, the documents were signed and commented on, although not all questions have been answered. Vladimir Putin said, as a kind of a bonus for Ms Tymoshenko, that he saw no need for additional monitoring and control schemes in Ukraine. He then indicated to Ms Tymoshenko that he wanted them to leave the room together.
They had more things to discuss, in particular, a gas transit contract. An hour later, Tymoshenko said they had signed it.
Had Russia and Ukraine decided to set up a union state that day, they would have definitely succeeded with flying colours.