Putin flexes his muscles and fuels a new world order
"All this, of course, is a carefully choreographed drama designed to serve the Kremlin's broader agenda. Five countries - Slovakia, Finland, Bosnia, Macedonia and Turkey - rely exclusively on Russia for their gas supplies. Many EU states are dependent for a large proportion of their supplies. Britain is in the fortunate position of depending on Russia for only 2.5% of its gas.
"Putin is playing games and most of them breach the health and safety regulations of global diplomacy on a massive scale. This former KGB officer grew up in a hard school and he knows how to bluff his opponents. The reality is that if Russia turned off gas supplies for any prolonged length of time it would be cutting off its nose to spite its face. With oil prices tumbling, gas is Russia's principal source of revenue. Gas prices, in turn, are predicted to fall later this year, so Vladimir is trying to shake down Ukraine.
"Last year, like a drug dealer offering favourable rates to a new customer, he sold gas to Ukraine at bargain basement prices; now he wants to charge much more, but Ukraine is holding out, prolonging negotiations until prices fall. One says "he" because nobody is in any doubt about who runs Gazprom, the Russian gas giant. The highly public way in which Putin ordered the chief executive of Gazprom to cut off the supply to Ukraine, on television, was done for deliberate effect: the Tsar issued a command and was instantly obeyed.
"We have experienced a wave of de facto nationalisation in this country recently; but even in today's climate Gordon Brown would not order the chief executive of Scottish Gas to pull the switch, on prime-time television. Putin enjoys giving an order that has pensioners a thousand miles away shivering within 48 hours: it is very Russian...
It is naïve to denounce Russia as "undemocratic." Russia is not a democracy because, with the exception of a small minority of westernised intelligentsia, it does not want to be. Russians look to a strong man to lead them. Keyserling may have coined the term Führerprinzip, but the idea it expressed was more native to Russia than to Germany..."
BERLIN, GERMANY
"Gas will come but this won't resolve the crisis"
"Three days after gas has started flowing again from Russia via Ukraine to Europe, and people in the Balkans have stopped shivering from cold in their homes, the topic of the gas dispute will leave daily news.
"However, it will be wishful thinking to think that the crisis between Moscow and Kiev will be over. Gazprom and Naftogaz continue disputing gas prices and transit tariffs. It is clear already that Ukraine, which has been seriously hit by financial turmoil, will not be able to afford even a small increase in the price of Russian natural gas, to say nothing of $450 for a thousand cubic meters quoted by Moscow the other day. Moreover, the domestic political situation in that country neighbouring Russia remains extremely volatile. Nobody knows how long the forced peace between Prime Minister Tymoshenko and President Yushchenko will last.
"Moreover, the seemingly all-powerful Gazprom is grunting under the burden of debts and considerably inflated prices on Turkmen gas, which the concern has to buy to carry out its contracts on gas supplies to Europe. It is clear that Kiev cannot be subsidised forever. However, it is absurd to justify Gazprom-imposed blockade merely by the need to establish fair market relations with the neighbour, as Prime Minister Putin puts it. Most likely, the Kremlin simply used Gazprom as a political weapon. The gas issue had already caused a conflict in early 2006, and relations between Ukraine and Russia became even worse after the Russian-Georgian war early last August. The following confrontation was inevitable. Therefore, the European Union should continue following the developments not only in its own interests, but also in the interests of Ukraine and other post-Soviet states. The shuttle diplomacy of the Czech Republic that holds EU Presidency will not resolve the problem alone, no matter how successful it might be."
PARIS, FRANCE
"Filling in Kremlin's coffers"
Russia has been getting huge profits from its trade with the EU for many years. In other words, the EU is an excellent client for...Russian power engineers. Why does Russia risk it by stopping gas supplies to the EU countries? First, Moscow wants to influence the economic and political situation in Ukraine. The Russian government cannot tolerate the attempts of some Ukrainian leaders to enter the EU, not to mention NATO. Second, Moscow wants to denigrate Kiev's image in Brussels' eyes. By stealing gas during the crisis, Ukraine is acquiring a status of unreliable partner that is incapable of providing the required guarantees for the transit of this strategic commodity to the EU.
What strategy should the EU adopt as regards Russia? The main problem is lack of unity. The EU must have a common strategy. In reality, the EU consists of 27 countries each of which has its own history, and its own relations with Russia. And each country has players with contrary views and approaches... The crisis has shown once again how important it is for the EU to develop its geopolitics."
Nikolai Zubkov