Moscow is ready to hold a summit without the Ukrainian President.
Moscow and Kiev are preparing for the crucial battle in the current gas war - a gas summit attended by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, and European consumers of Russian gas. President Dmitry Medvedev proposed to hold the summit in Moscow, but his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko said that he would attend the meeting only if it took place in the EU, and went to London for moral support. The Kremlin, however, is ready to hold the summit without the Ukrainian leader, especially as Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko arrives in Moscow tomorrow to, according to her press service, "solve all the gas problems."
Gas tug-of-war
On Wednesday, President Dmitry Medvedev proposed holding a gas summit. He personally invited Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, and Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin to take part in the summit. Yesterday, Mr Medvedev spoke by telephone with Viktor Yushchenko and invited him to Moscow.
The Ukrainian leader agreed to hold a summit, but specified that it should take place at a neutral site. "Ukraine thinks the gas summit should take place either in Prague, which holds the EU presidency, or in Brussels, but by no means in Moscow," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vladimir Ogryzko said. "It would be illogical, in our opinion, to hold it in the country which is a party in the gas conflict."
Viktor Yushchenko went to Great Britain yesterday to get moral support. According to his press service, he will meet with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown to "discuss energy security issues". Before going to Europe, the Ukrainian President spoke by telephone with Angela Merkel and told her that Ukraine could not resume gas supplies because there was not enough gas at the entrance to the Ukrainian pipeline system. He also assured Ms Merkel that Ukraine had neither suspended gas supplies to the EU nor siphoned off gas, insisting that it had paid for the gas it consumed in 2008.
The Czech Republic also spoke against holding the summit in Moscow. "The summit on the gas conflict between Moscow and Ukraine will take place not in Russia, but in an EU state," Czech Ambassador to Russia Miroslav Kostelka told BBC radio. "As far as I know, Mr Topolanek and Mr Medvedev had a telephone conversation and agreed to hold a summit attended by the European Commission, Russia, and Ukraine."
At the same time, Kommersant sources in the Kremlin and the Foreign Ministry informed us that it is crucial for Russia to hold talks in Moscow. "The Czechs may say what they want, but it does not mean we will obey," a source in the Ministry said.
The Presidential Executive Office was no less categorical. "It is not just crucial; we said clearly that we want to hold the forum here, in Russia. Our partners are not only the EU, but also the non-EU countries suffering from the cut-offs. It is important to explain our attitude to them," a source in the Kremlin told Kommersant. He praised the EU's intention to take part in discussing the conflict, but again stressed that Russia considers the summit to be a meeting of transit parties, suppliers, and consumers not only from the EU.
Moscow managed to attract wide attention to its gas forum. The leaders of Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Moldova, the countries suffering the most from the conflict, agreed to come to Moscow. Ukraine will also attend the forum despite Mr Yushchenko's unwillingness to participate.
Yesterday, Kommersant got to know about a telephone conversation between the Russian and Ukrainian Prime Ministers, Vladimir Putin and Yulia Tymoshenko, who agreed to hold bilateral talks in Moscow on Saturday.
News about Ms Tymoshenko's visit to Moscow led the Kremlin to believe that the forthcoming gas summit could be fruitful. "It does not matter if Mr Yushchenko comes or not," a person in the Presidential Executive Office said. "Ms Tymoshenko will be here, and she will meet with Mr Putin before the summit. It is quite possible that the talks will result in an agreed Russian-Ukrainian position. The key thing is that Ms Tymoshenko has a relevant mandate."
The Ukrainian Prime Minister, in turn, also believes in success. "The dialogue between the Russian and Ukrainian Prime Ministers was very constructive and gives hope for a solution to all the problems. Ms Tymoshenko thinks that the parties may reach a compromise," the press service of the Ukrainian Government said.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian analysts doubt that Ms Tymoshenko will be able to put an end to the conflict with Russia. "Taking into account her constant rivalry with Mr Yushchenko, she risks being accused of yielding to the Kremlin. Most likely, talks with Mr Putin will start from scratch," Vadim Karasev, head of the Kiev Institute for Global Strategies, said. "But Mr Putin will be able to know Ms Tymoshenko's approval ratings in Ukraine."
The directions Ms Tymoshenko was given by the Ukrainian President's Secretariat confirm the fact that the Ukrainian Prime Minister will have less room to manoeuvre during talks with Mr Putin.
Andrei Kislinsky, Deputy Head of the President's Secretariat, criticised Ms Tymoshenko for her promises to pay for "technical gas" used for pumping gas to Europe "without discussing its price."
Mr Kislinsky noted that the gas transit agreement that Ms Tymoshenko signed on December 31, 2008, stipulates the price of gas for Ukraine at $201 for 1,000 cubic metres, and a transit rate of no lower than $2 for 1,000 cubic metres per 100 kilometres. "The Russian Government's claims about establishing control over Ukraine's pipeline system cause concerns," Mr Kislinsky said. "Our President has never talked about it with his Russian colleagues, and has never asked anyone to do this, so why is the Russian side so confident in making such announcements? I want to believe that while the Ukrainian authorities should unite to defend the country's interests, none of the country's leaders will make a mistake."
This is, in fact, a warning for Ms Tymoshenko: she should not make moves during talks with Russia without discussing it with Mr Yushchenko; and the Ukrainian President is not willing to make compromises with Moscow.