Vedomosti: “Gas Here, Gas There, Gas Everywhere”
The final outcome is expected on Saturday
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is planning a decisive battle in the gas war on his own turf: on Saturday, he wants to reach a transit agreement with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and announce the results afterwards to invited representatives from consumer countries.
An effective finale to the gas conflict is planned to be held in the Kremlin. Invitations to it, according to a source in the Presidential Executive Office, are being sent out to heads of state and government of all countries involved in the consumption or transit of Russian gas, including Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and European Union countries. Before the gas summit, as its organisers describe it, Mr Putin will meet with Ms Tymoshenko: they agreed to do so yesterday afternoon. They are expected to discuss the resumption of supplies to Europe and disclose the scheme they have adopted, the Kremlin source said. The source added that since the summit was called on short notice, Moscow was not insisting that heads of state attend it. The European Union will be represented by European Commissioner for Energy Andris Piebalgs and Martin Riman, the Energy Minister from the Czech Republic, who holds the EU rotating presidency, official spokesman for the Union Johannes Leitenberger told journalists. Late last night, the Kremlin press service reported that President Dmitry Medvedev had also invited Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko to Moscow.
Turning on gas
Yesterday's remarks by Mr Putin and Tymoshenko's staff suggested a general outline of what they will offer each other to restore transit. They both propose an international consortium with European participation to deal with gas supplies to Ukraine, though of course the gas being referred to is of a special kind. Mr Putin said the consortium should concern itself with technological gas (6.5 billion cu m a year), which, Kiev says, is vital for the resumption of transit. The consortium will sell this gas to Ukraine, Mr Putin explained to Eni chief Paolo Scaroni, and there and then proposed that Mr Scaroni also join in. "Let us pay for it together, share risks, and start delivering the gas," the Russian Prime Minister said. Mr Scaroni said he was ready.
Ukraine is proposing a different kind of consortium, one to purchase all of Gazprom's gas exported across Ukraine (100 billion cu m a year). Today Tymoshenko might discuss this with European Union representatives, said her adviser Alexander Gudyma: the establishment of an international company to buy gas from Gazprom on the Ukraine-Russia border and then monitoring its further transit. Gazprom will have no gas for that company, however, since all its fuel has been contracted, said company spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov.
Other matters relate to gas supplies to Ukraine itself. The country has no contract for 2009 (which is what set off the gas war). Ukraine does not believe it needs to hurry - the crisis has cut consumption and stocks in its underground store sites will last till the end of April, making it possible "to hold such talks calmly and without fuss", Ms Tymoshenko said yesterday. Kiev will even benefit from such a delay, believes an official from Yushchenko's team. Russia proposes that Ukraine pay $450 per 1,000 cu m (the current price for Slovakia) during the first quarter and then switch to the European formula, providing for a further reduction in line with oil prices; it would, however, be simpler to wait for the second quarter, he said. The plants are overstocked because of the crisis and do not need high-priced gas, while the population uses gas produced in Ukraine, he said.
Who is winning?
It is not clear which scenario will prevail - the two parties involved in the conflict are both trying to win the main consumers over to their side. According to Marina Soroka, Tymoshenko's spokeswoman, Tymoshenko yesterday spoke by telephone with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and Angela Merkel. Ms Tymoshenko can simply bring a consolidated European position to Moscow.
Before the summit, Mr Putin will also talk with Ms Merkel - he is in Germany today - and their meeting will not be an easy one. As Ms Merkel said at a joint news conference with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown yesterday, she is determined to tell Mr Putin that Russia risks losing confidence as a result of the gas transit crisis. "I believe there is a danger that Russia could lose some of its credibility if we face a long break in gas supplies," news agencies quoted Ms Merkel as saying. Mr Brown also stressed that the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine showed the world the need to diversify hydrocarbon supplies.
It is not clear either who will arrive in Moscow on Saturday. French Foreign Ministry spokesman Eric Chevalier said that a gas summit can take place only when gas supplies to the EU are resumed. A final decision on the summit, he added, rests with the country holding the Union's presidency - the Czech Republic. The European Union will send its representatives to Moscow only if Ukraine attends, said the Czech Industry and Trade Ministry spokesman, Tomas Bartovski.
VASILY KASHIN, MAXIM GLIKIN, DENIS MALKOV, NADEZHDA IVANITSKAYA, AND IRINA REZNIK CONTRIBUTED TO THIS ARTICLE
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Why no gas is flowing
Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine on January 1, while transit shipments stopped on January 7. When Gazprom made a trial shipment of 98.8 million cu m of gas to the Balkans and Slovakia on January 13, Ukraine turned off the taps on its side. The request cannot be fulfilled, said Ukraine's Naftogaz: the system, which has been operating on its own since January 7, needed to be filled with technological gas. Unless gas was provided, domestic consumers would have to be cut off. Pumping needed to be resumed not in a trial mode, but at the previous rates (300 million cu m a day).
Yelena Mazneva
