The key events of 2008 - presidential elections, coercion of Georgia into peace and the world financial crisis - determined the influence of Russian politicians. Each of the three "waves of influence" strengthened the positions of one of the elites: first the politicians who cast in their lot with the new President, then the defense and security lobby (siloviki) and finally, in the autumn, the economic lobby.
These essentially temporary fluctuations continued to influence the clout wielded by the groups of elites even after the events that triggered these "waves". The Russian elite are in a constant process of diffusion, as new players blend into the existing elite structure, and attests to a fairly high level of the consolidation of the elite.
The federal administrative elite
The list of the top 100 leading Russian politicians in 2008 is headed by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (9, 52), followed by Dmitry Medvedev (8, 99). The difference in the average scores of the President and the Prime Minister has been constantly narrowing, reaching negligible values by the end of the year. The ruling tandem was well ahead of the rest of the pack throughout the year.
The influential leaders of 2008 form a highly conservative group in terms of their positions in the rating. First Deputy Head of the Presidential Executive OfficeVladislav Surkov (3rd place) and Vice Prime Minister Igor Sechin (4th place) were consistently influential throughout the year regardless of how their status changed during the course of personnel reshuffles. Other influential figures are Vice Prime Minister Sergei Sobyanin (6th place) and Sergei Naryshkin (8th place), who saw his influence grow steadily and fairly rapidly before hitting a plateau when he was appointed Head of the President's Staff. The late Patriarch Alexy II was a major political influence (10th place).
The past year saw the strengthening of the political elite responsible for financial and economic issues. Vice Prime Minister and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin is in 5th place, however, his rating in the last several months can be largely attributed to inertia. The position of the Minister of Health and Social Development Tatyana Golikova (18-19th places), who displayed considerable competence in dealing with operational economic matters, on the contrary, has been steadily rising. Minister of Economic Development Elvira Nabiullina climbed to 30th place at the end of the year, while the influence of German Gref, Head of Sberbank, plummeted in 2008 (to 80th place).
Another trend was the strengthening of the military and security elements of the elite and the figures in Russian foreign politics. The resolution of the Georgia-Ossetia conflict in Russia's favour made the shaping of an independent foreign policy very real. Not surprisingly, the influence of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (20th place), Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov (18th-19th places), and FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov (26th place) increased during the year.
The ratings of the "eternal" ministers, Sergei Shoigu (32nd place) and Victor Khristenko (33rd place), remain relatively stable.
The scores of media personalities Konstantin Ernst (59th place) and Oleg Dobrodeyev (65-66th places) were average.
The party elite
The dominant role in the political system based on the results of the parliamentary and presidential elections and Vladimir Putin's establishment as Party leader strengthened the overall positions of the United Russia functionaries. At the end of the year, Boris Gryzlov was in 11th place, Vyacheslav Volodin in 50th place, Andrei Vorobyov in 89th place, Oleg Morozov in 97th-98th place, and Andrei Isayev in 99th place.
The Just Russia Party, far from emerging as a rival party in 2008, is steadily drifting towards the periphery of the political system. Not surprisingly, the influence of Just Russia leader Sergei Mironov dropped (43-44th places). On the other hand, Deputy Duma Speaker Alexander Babakov, a member of that party, improved his rating somewhat (96th place).
Although the rating of the KPRF and LDPR leaders fluctuated during the year, the end-of-year positions of Gennady Zyuganov (57th place) and Vladimir Zhirinovsky (67-68th places) remain stable, which can be attributed to their established roles in the political system.
The regional elite
The consolidated influence of the regional elite weakened significantly in 2008: at the initial phase of the crisis the federal authorities had a much tighter grip on financial and organizational levers. The most influential regional leader remained Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov (16th place), but the dynamics of his influence have been clearly negative. St Petersburg Governor Valentina Matviyenko is another influential figure (34th place). Regional leaders have seen their ratings drop: during the year, Ramzan Kadyrov (58th place), Mintimer Shaimiyev (63th place), Alexander Tkachev (74th place), and Murtaza Rakhimov (100th place) have dropped in the ratings. The sagging of the long-serving old-timers has been particularly noticeable.
The influence of the presidential envoys to the Federal Districts is also shrinking. The highest rating among the presidential representatives in 2008 was achieved by Georgy Poltavchenko, the Presidential Representative in the Central Federal District (95th place).
The business elite
The dynamics of the influence of representatives of state and private business went in opposite directions. At the end of the year, traditional business leaders are still going strong.
Among the top state managers, Alexei Miller (9th place) and Sergei Chemezov (14th place) occupy high positions. The rating of the Rosneft Head Sergei Bogdanchikov has risen to 39th-40th places. By contrast, the influence of Vladimir Yakunin (24th place) diminished, and he has dropped out of the top 20. The end of the year rating of Anatoly Chubais dropped from last year (to 45th place), largely due to the completed reform of RAO UES. However, his influence has been going up in the last few months. The head of Transneft, Nikolai Tokarev, has risen to 78th place.
Among private businessmen, the most influential figures at the end of the year were Roman Abramovich (12th place) and Oleg Deripaska (13th place). LUKOIL Head Vagit Alekperov is still highly influential (in 31st place). Mikhail Fridman saw his influence drop to 47th-48th places, while the influence of Alexei Mordashev (61st place) and Vladimir Yevtushenkov (69th place) remains average.
Alisher Usmanov (23rd place), Gennady Timchenko (29th place) and Yuri Kovalchuk (27-28th places), who are close to decision-making centers, have strengthened their positions.
Dmitry Orlov, Director-General of the Political and Economic Communications Agency, Cand. Sc. (History); Alyona Korpusova, PECA analyst.
[Graphics: materials available in hard copy]
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PECA research methodology
The final rating of the 100 leading Russian politicians is based on a survey of expert opinions conducted through secret questionnaires during 2008. The panel of 25 experts included political scientists, political technologists, media experts, and representatives from political parties.
The experts answered the same question every month: "How would you assess, on a 10-point scale, the influence of the following Russian politicians in the Presidential Executive Office, the Government, and the Federal Assembly?"
Initially, each expert assessed the weight of every candidate mentioned in the questionnaire and then determined the average scores. During the course of the investigation each expert was allowed to write in the names of five people who in his opinion should be represented in the top 100. If a contender not included in the top 100 was named by at least two experts, he was evaluated by all the members of the panel in the following months.
In the final annual table the average scores of all the politicians in the top 100 for at least five months were summed up to determine the average value for each politician for the whole period of the study (the average final score).
The final rating is a consolidated assessment of the influence of 100 Russian politicians by top Russian experts. The individuals rated were divided into three groups: "very strong influence" (1-20), "strong influence" (21-50), and "moderate influence" (51-100).
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List of experts
1. Political scientists, political technologists and media experts
Sergei Zverev (Social Communications Development Company), Vyacheslav Nikonov (The Russian World Fund), Alexei Chesnakov (Current Russian Political Studies Center), Alexei Pushkov (TV Tsentr Channel), Pyotr Tolstoy (Channel 1), Sergei Brilev (Russia Channel), Dmitry Orlov (Political and Economic Communications Agency), Kirill Tanayev (Effective Policy Fund), Dmitry Badovsky (Social Systems Research Institute), Konstantin Simonov (National Energy Security Fund), Yevgeny Gontmakher (Institute of Contemporary Development), Alexei Zudin (Political Technologies Center), Vitaly Ivanov (political scientist), Leonid Radzikhovsky (political scientist), Andrei Kolesnikov (Political Philosophy Center), Alexander Budberg (Moskovsky Komsomolets), Stepan Lvov (VTsIOM), Maxim Dianov (Regional Studies Institute), Dmitry Gusev (Bakster Group).
2. Party representatives
Andrei Pisarev - United Russia; Oleg Kulikov - KPRF; Nikolai Levichev - Just Russia; Igor Lebedev - LDPR; Leonid Gozman - the Right Cause; Sergei Ivanenko - Yabloko.
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New players are constantly blending into the existing elite.
Alyona Korpusova; Dmitry Orlov
