Dmitry Butrin, Pyotr Grib
Vladimir Putin proposes putting gas pipeline under international supervision
On January 1, 2009, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who had been personally in charge of Russia's actions in the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute from late December, approved the first "conciliation" document, i.e., a protocol establishing a multilateral commission to monitor gas flow at facilities in Russia, Ukraine and the European Union. If a Ukrainian representative signs this protocol today, Gazprom could resume gas supplies to EU countries as early as tomorrow. Supplies were disrupted on January 7, 2009. The gas conflict could now return to its previous format: an information war.
Thus, the first document was signed yesterday in the midst of the traditional New Year gas dispute between Russia, Ukraine and the EU, so it's possible that its most acute phase will come to an end within the next few days.
At his Novo-Ogaryovo residence, Vladimir Putin held talks with his Czech counterpart, Mirek Topolanek, on the make-up of the international group to monitor gas flow at the pumping stations in Russia and Ukraine. The Czech Republic took the EU chair in January 2009, and Mirek Topolanek is the de facto EU representative.
Jose Barroso, president of the European Commission, confirmed in a telephone conversation with Vladimir Putin yesterday that he had approved the document initialled by Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin (on Russia's behalf) and Martin Riman, Czech Industry and Energy Minister (on behalf of the EU). That evening, Mirek Topolanek took yet another flight to Kiev (he was there as recently as Friday). The Ukrainian Government's press service said Topolanek was scheduled to have a late meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who may also sign this document.
Starting January 6, Vladimir Putin and Gazprom demanded that a group of multilateral monitors be established to track gas supplies. The Kommersant business daily has a version of the protocol on the formation of the commission as proposed by Gazprom. It says the monitors must include representatives of the Russian and Ukrainian governments, the gas supplier (Gazprom), the transit company (Naftogaz of Ukraine), gas buyers in the EU, and the European Commission, as well as independent experts.
According to Gazprom's version, the commission should monitor only the Ukrainian gas infrastructure, including its underground gas storage, and record the amounts of gas delivered to the gas pumping stations in Russia, Ukraine and third party countries.
Russia thinks this commission must draw an independent conclusion on the reasons for blocking Russian gas transit via Ukraine on January 6 and on whether Naftogaz of Ukraine (which has no contract for Gazprom's gas supplies after December 31, 2008) is siphoning off transit gas from Gazprom's supplies to Europe. Vladimir Putin said yesterday that he saw no reason for Ukraine to refuse to sign the said document. On January 9 EU monitors began working at Naftogaz's dispatch centre in Kiev. In addition, Naftogaz is publishing data on gas supplies from December 31, Vladimir Putin said on December 8.
Even though there is no discrepancy between the data presented by the sides, the conclusions they reach are different. Gazprom insists that representatives of gas consumers be put on the commission. The Russian Prime Minister said that companies such as GdF Suez, E.ON Ruhrgas, WINGAS, RWE Transgas, OMV EconGas, ENI, SPP, Overgas, Panrusgas, DEPA, SGC Vostok and Moldovagaz applied for participation in the commission's work. Mr Topolanek arranged the participation of "a Norwegian gas company" as an independent rival to Gazprom (most probably, NorskHydro) in the commission.
It is not yet known which of the documents the sides must sign, but yesterday the Russian Prime Minister pointed out that the start of the commission's work would serve as sufficient grounds for Gazprom to resume gas supplies to Ukraine for its transit to the EU. On January 9, the Ukrainian side said if Russia resumes transit gas supplies interrupted on January 7, European consumers will begin to receive gas 25-36 hours later. This could put an end to the acute stage of the gas dispute on January 11 or 12, at least for Europe. But it depends on the outcome of the gas price agreement as to when Gazprom will resume gas supplies to Ukraine (see page 2). Possibly early next week the gas war may return to its format of disagreement and discussion.
The special thing about the present gas crisis is (apart from its "physical" constituent and real undersupplies of gas to the EU (see page 2) direct participation of the Russian Government and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in the conflict. Formerly, the Government left it all to Gazprom to explain and settle the matter. Russia's former prime ministers who were well-versed in technical matters (i.e., Mikhail Fradkov and Viktor Zubkov) took part in the talks, but only indirectly. This time, Vladimir Putin personally guided Russia's actions in the gas war. On January 8, he led a press conference for foreign journalists to set forth Russia's position in the gas dispute (see the reference note).
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller played the role of Russia's "commander-in-chief" in the first days of the gas dispute. On December 29, he chaired the meeting of the Gazprom board, which discussed the gas debt of Naftogaz of Ukraine (a larger portion of which was repaid on December 30). Late evening December 31, he announced a possible suspension of gas supplies to Ukraine starting January 1. However, on January 5, Alexei Miller was summoned for an official meeting with the Prime Minister, and such meetings were held every day thereafter. It was Vladimir Putin who instructed Gazprom CEO to stop gas transit to the EU via Ukraine on January 7. On January 9, he explained the situation to German Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
Actually, it was the Federal Customs Service that stopped gas supplies to Ukraine leading to the siphoning of gas by Naftogaz from Gazprom's transit supplies to the EU. On January 6, Gazprom received a warning from Andrei Belyaninov, the Service's head, against non-contract gas supplies to Ukraine in 2009, for this would violate the Russian legislation and create risks of "non-return of currency earnings." The Federal Customs Service would not be able to discover these risks on its own as it placed no demands on Gazprom in a similar situation in 2006. It was the Russian Government that was fully in charge of the situation. President Dmitry Medvedev intervened but once in the course of the negotiations: on January 7, he had a telephone conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yushchenko, without any visible results.
Since the protocol on the international group of monitors was signed by Igor Sechin, not by Vladimir Putin, the Russian Government does not think that the conflict is close to an end. As President, Vladimir Putin himself ended all the previous gas wars.