Gazeta: “Dangers of unemployment”
Job cuts abort tax reduction
Russian employment services fail to place the unemployed back in jobs amid current layoffs, as reported at Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's meeting with First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov on December 20.
In terms of global indicators, the unemployment rate in Russia seems rather moderate. According to Zhukov, a total of 1,395 jobless (прим. редактору: что-то маловато. есть другие данные), or 2% of Russia's economically active population, were officially registered by the Federal Employment Service in mid-December.
In the worst case scenario, the number of jobless in Russia might top 7 - 8 million people by the end of 2008, including the hidden unemployed, Yevgeny Gontmakher, director of the Center for Social Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted.
Meanwhile, according to Anton Danilov-Danilyan, head of the Expert Council of Delovaya Rossiya, unemployment could reach a lower figure of 2.5 - 2.7 million in 2009.
Still, businessmen hope the somber forecasts will not come true. "If things continue the way they are, the number of jobless - including the hidden unemployed - might reach the rates predicted. Nonetheless, we are hoping for the best," said David Yakobashvili, Chairman of the Board of Directors at Vimm-Bill-Dann. "We do not plan to cut employees. Our holding does have a staff turnover, but it always depends on season," he said.
So far, official statistics report that 236 city- and town-forming enterprises in Russia announced 25,000 layoffs as of December 16, meaning 1,000 people will be dismissed at each enterprise. As for hidden unemployment, the number of those sent on forced leave, idle periods, or on part-time work is reported to have reached 207,000 people for one week in December. Beginning in October, companies planned to cut 243,000 jobs, but have dismissed 40% of their plan figures. Out of those 45,000 officially dismissed since early October, only 18,000 people have been given employment.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said he expects that natural monopolies, particularly rail monopoly Russian Railways and state-controlled natural gas giant Gazprom, to develop a system of prompt control over labor force. Putin also mentioned development of the road construction sector.
Russian Railways' top managers chose not to comment in detail on whether or not they are prepared to provide jobs to those dismissed, saying the company's staff do not have to fear losing jobs. "We are planning to dismiss 3% of the company's office workers," a top company manager told Gazeta.
As for road construction, it has long been the sector that provides jobs to the unemployed. "During the Great Depression in the United States and Germany's crisis years, the state-controlled road construction sector was a real support for jobs preservation programs," Oleg Shakhov, former Director General at federal state unitary enterprise Dorogi Rossii (Roads of Russia) of the Transportation Ministry, told the newspaper.
The government cannot solve business sector issues at the expense of tax payers, Vladimir Putin noted, speaking about construction workers' income. However, the overall tendency is clear: the government is not going to introduce tax holidays or reduce value-added tax rates.
By Ilya Gorbunov
