Darya Nikolayeva and Dmitry Butrin
Tatiana Golikova will assume responsibility for Vladimir Putin's promise.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin promised to cut migrant-worker quotas in 2009 by half. Instead of fulfilling this promise, the Government has halved possible reserve-quota increases or declines. Health and Social Development Minister Tatiana Golikova, rather than the Prime Minister, will decide whether to admit two million or six million migrants when the official quota is 3.97 million workers.
The Government has found a subtle way of preserving 2009 migrant-worker quotas, which are supposed to be cut in half on orders from Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and fulfilling these orders. Putin said during the December 4 question-and-answer session that it was justified to halve submitted requests at this time of layoffs.
Under the Government's November 7 resolution No. 835, Russia will require 3.97 million migrant workers, including a 30% reserve, next year. The 1.8 million quota, stipulated in the spring of 2008, was swelled to 3.4 million. Migrant-worker quotas have been formulated in accordance with regional employers' requests since 2006. In effect, the Government is utilising the notification procedure for attracting migrants but reserves the right not to fulfill specific requests when necessary. No quotas were rejected in 2006-2008. Moreover, they tended to increase throughout 2008 under the Health and Social Development Ministry's proposals to the Government.
On December 4, Putin hinted that he was somewhat sceptical about migrant-quota restrictions but was forced to make an openly populist statement on cutting the quota. By early December, radical rightist organisations, including the Movement Against Illegal Immigraion and the marginal United Russia Young Guard, had started demanding that the Government shield the labour market from migrants at this time of crisis.
However, the Government has so far failed to make any populist moves. On December 10, the Government decided not to modify migrant-worker quotas but instead amended the relevant quota-calculation regulations. Under the November 7 resolution, 2009 quotas included a 30% reserve i.e a reserve-quota increase. Subsequent amendments envisage 50% increases as well as possible reductions and will allow the Health and Social Development Ministry, rather than the Government, to draft proposals on attracting fewer foreign workers and reducing quota volumes.
On December 10, the Health and Social Development Ministry said cautiously that the 3.9-million foreign-worker quota, stipulated for 2009 based on employer requests, would be cut in half when distributed among the regions. However, nothing will prevent employers from hiring the required number of workers until the Ministry makes the final decision.
The Federal Migration Service (FMS) said the new amendments had not modified existing quotas, but that this was a clever move. Sergei Boldyrev, deputy director of the FMS labour-migration department, said Prime Minister Putin recently signed a resolution on migrant-quota volumes, and that a more flexible and diplomatic solution had now been found for implementing his orders.
"In case of undesirable developments, the Health and Social Development Ministry will react flexibly and will reduce specific quotas. This solution makes it possible to find a way out and to reduce quotas whenever necessary, without abolishing the quota resolution and without halving such quotas," Boldyrev told the paper.
He said the quotas would only be revised at the end of the first quarter after the business community assessed the situation.
Consequently, nationalists are now pinning their hopes on Health and Social Development Minister Tatiana Golikova and regional authorities overseeing 2009 migrant quotas. On December 10, Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov announced plans to halve migrant-worker quotas to retain jobs for the city population. He said Moscow did not need the 350,000 migrant workers under current quotas.
The Young Guard which has held numerous meetings and protests in support of reduced migrant quotas called the Government decision one of its victories. "The ice has been broken. They have started discussing labour-migration issues. I hope officials will not delay the implementation of the Government's decision to reduce quotas. Otherwise we will use political methods, including street protests, as a reminder of the need for fulfilling Government orders," Andrei Tatarinov, deputy chief of the Young Guard central headquarters, told the paper.
The Government's decision to publish migrant quotas facilitated subsequent political activity. From now on, Tatiana Golikova should not publish changing regional quotas very often. And Vladimir Putin should not discuss this issue in public. Migrant quotas remain the same; if necessary, Golikova's Ministry can increase them by a new reserve quota volume i.e. to 6 million workers.