Itogi: "Everything will be fine"
The country and the Prime Minister have reassured each other
There will be no presidential election before 2012. The economy may start to pick up in the second or third quarters of next year, but most likely in the spring of 2010. This is what is in store for Russia in the near term. A detailed forecast occupied 188 minutes, an all-time record for Vladimir Putin's live communication with the people.
Putin quite succeeded in "getting a feel for people's sentiments" and "a cross section of real problems" (this is how the Prime Minister's press secretary Dmitry Peskov summed up the task of Putin's live phone-in to Itogi). It is hard to say who "reassured" whom more in these difficult times - the Prime Minister or the nation.
In his seventh live call-in programme with the nation, and the first in his capacity as Prime Minister, Putin never slipped up, despite the fact that he was treading uncharted territory. First of all, he was broadcasting not from the Kremlin, but from Gostiny Dvor. Second, our government structures have only recently started using the key word "crisis" when speaking about the situation in this country. Finally, for the first time in his nine years as President and Prime Minister, Putin had to answer such questions as "how will we live?" and "how to survive?". Judging from his answers, he was ready for the dialogue. The country "reassured" the Prime Minister, because none of the questions asked took him by surprise, which means he has his fingers on the country's pulse. Have his interlocutors been "reassured" in return? The Prime Minister's advice on how to behave in times of crisis boiled down to this: You are afraid of losing your jobs? Do not give in to provocations; do not sign involuntary resignations "of your own accord". Otherwise, you will not be entitled to severance pay and unemployment benefits. Next came a list of measures to be taken if unemployment starts growing, ranging from allocating between 10 and 50 billion roubles to employment services to saving jobs in the regions and retraining personnel. If that does not prove to be enough, there is still no reason to despair. The Prime Minister promised to cut the quotas for "guest workers" "by at least 50%".
Small and medium-size business is on its last legs because of the crisis? Putin was even more emphatic than usual about the need to support private entrepreneurs.
Is the country printing new money? "Rubbish. And in general, you should keep your savings in roubles," Putin advised his listeners. But to be on the safe side, he added that at the end of the day, it is everyone's own choice. After all, the national currency is being devalued, albeit smoothly.
Petrol prices are not going down fast enough? Well, nothing doing. It is "to a certain extent the government's policy," Putin admitted. The oil sector also wants to survive the crisis, and thus tries to save some of its revenues at the expense of the domestic consumer.
Many who called in complained about the rising prices for utility services and fuel. What can you expect if the utilities networks are 80% worn out? If the system continues to be cash-strapped it will collapse, the Prime Minister admits. It is easy and pleasant to tell the truth. All are equal in the face of the crisis. This seemed to be the main message Putin wanted to get across, but if this answer is not optimistic enough for some people, the Prime Minister hastens to add: "I would agree with you that we can ask the infrastructure monopolies not to raise tariffs so quickly."
Now for the main thing. In spite of all the fierce crisis storms, "everything that we have planned in the social sphere, everything connected with the increase in social benefits and pensions will be fulfilled." This was the answer people had expected.
By the way, shortly before his conversation with the nation, Putin postponed the announcement of the Government's new anti-crisis plan until December 20. The main reason was that the Ministry of Economic Development had yet to provide macroeconomic calculations. Preliminary calculations have been made, but have yet to be signed by Minister Elvira Nabiullina, according to some Russian media.
Indeed, some of the data have been leaked to the press. For example, Deputy Minister of Economic Development Andrei Klepach earlier said that the budget calculations for next year should proceed from a negative scenario, including a drop in the growth rate by half, from 6.7% to 3.5%, a devaluation of the rouble from 24.7 per dollar to 32-35 per dollar, and an inflation rate of up to 12.5-15%, instead of the targeted 8.5%. Adjustments will have to be made to the 2009-2011 budget because it was prepared before the crisis. Given all this, will the social guarantees announced by the Prime Minister work? It may be that the delay in the new anti-crisis plan is caused by the search for previously "unnoticed" resources. After all, the Prime Minister's promise counts for something.
Like last year and the year before last, Putin saved up the most interesting bit for last, after the live phone-in was over. Talking with journalists, he brushed aside any speculations and guesswork about an imminent early election. The next presidential election in Russia will take place as scheduled in 2012. "There is no need to fuss," the Prime Minister said. In connection with the first question was an equally delicate question as to whether or not the increase of the presidential term from four to six years had been made "with Putin in mind". There was no direct answer, but Putin supported increasing the term: "Six years for a country with so many nationalities makes very good sense." He said he was very pleased with his interaction with President Dmitry Medvedev. "I for one like the way our tandem is working in terms of effectiveness," the President admitted.
In any case, only the winner in the 2012 election would benefit from the "reasonably increased" presidential term. By that time, the crisis should be over and a new period of growth should begin. At present, people are likely to vote not with their hearts and not even with their heads, but proceeding from the size of their purses. It is easy to see why it fell on Putin to "calm down" the citizens. After all, he is more than a "technical Prime Minister" and is seen by the majority of Russians as a real and active leader. One proof of this is the interest shown in Putin's live video linkup. A total of 2.2 million citizens asked him various questions - a record. The next record to be attempted will have to do with the fulfillment of the promises made during the latest "hot line".
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STYLE
In his usual format
Below, Itogi interviews Alexei Chesnakov, Director-General of the Current Political Studies Center.
Q.: Was Vladimir Putin's conversation with the people a success? What's the idea behind this format of communication?
A.: I think the conversation was absolutely concrete, as it should be. In terms of the format, people were talking not with the head of state, but with the head of government and simultaneously, the leader of the biggest Russian party,which contributed to a "hands-on" atmosphere. There was less "Kremlin pomp and circumstance", but Putin's trademark lightening-swift reaction and outgoing manner were there. This is a highly individual thing. His "call-in" programmes are impossible to replicate. As far as I know, this format is rarely used abroad because it calls for a very special mood. I am sure that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown or German Chancellor Angela Merkel would hardly have agreed to take part in such events, because they have a different style than Putin. Still, sometimes the necessary human signals must come from politicians. People like to feel that they can discuss the things that really worry them with the nation's leaders. In their conversation with Putin, they spoke candidly about the problems that are common to many people. There were of course some oddball questions such as "when will it start snowing?", but there's nothing wrong with that, either. After all, it is a "live programme", and not some set-piece press conference.
Q.: You are suggesting that Putin is somehow unique in that way. But didn't U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt have similar "chats" with his own people?
A.: Roosevelt's radio "fireside chats" had an entirely different format. There were no questions and answers. Roosevelt sat in front of a microphone and explained what the government had done during the past week and what it would do the following week, and he explained the reasons why. Not so in Putin's case. People ask questions themselves and get direct answers. Most of the questions were addressed to the executive branch, which means that they were within Putin's ambit.
Q.: Are you suggesting that this format suits the Prime Minister more than the head of state?
A.: This role is more suitable for the head of government, since it is the executive branch that deals with concrete economic problems in this country. In short, Medvedev has his own style and Putin has his own. That is quite natural.
Alexander Chudodeyev
