By Yevgenia Pismennaya
"The speed of Urals crude's fall is breaking not the psychological barrier, but my mind," a Russian financial-economic official said grimly last week when I asked for his opinion about the price of oil plummeting to $35 per barrel.
"Everyone has it hard now, so beat it," another official, an otherwise highly intelligent man, said when I asked for his comments on Standard & Poor's lowering Russia's long-term sovereign rating.
Russian officials have become visibly nervous and irritable. They are no longer sure their decisions are correct, and appear to be at a loss about what to do next.
The Economic Development Ministry planned to recommend that the Finance Ministry recalculate the federal budget on the basis of a new Urals oil price, $50, on Monday, but the price plunged to $35 on Friday.
It has become dangerous to assume responsibility for choosing strategies. The economic situation is changing so fast that new decisions become senseless sooner than they are approved.
"We firmly intend to maintain tariffs for natural monopolies," First Deputy Igor Shuvalov, responsible for the federal tariff policy, said. Ten days later, another Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin reported tariff cuts - an anti-strategist for your strategist.
Several months ago, officials said lightly that the global crisis would not affect Russia, which had accumulated huge reserves. Now their jeers have turned into a grim smile. Oil plummeting to $35 per barrel has drastically changed life for Russian bureaucrats.
The omnipotent Vnesheconombank (VEB) has asked Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who chairs its supervisory board, for a 1-trillion-rouble loan. VEB, given authority over budgetary allocations to companies and banks, has become the first to cry for help.
The federal budget's investment and target programmes will be cut by at least 30 percent. The decision is as good as made, officials say. The Finance Ministry has instructed ministries and departments to cut spending by 15 percent next year.
Russian officials have changed. They have turned from polished owners of countless riches into ordinary people and have joined the fight for evasive resources.
Putin's government has changed dramatically, although the faces are the same. Urals oil sold at $35 per barrel is a personal trial for Putin, whose task is to maintain control over rivals who are becoming poorer, not richer.