Kommersant: “Anti-crisis plan breaks the schedule”
Pyotr Netreba
Economic Ministry not ready to predict Russia's economic future
The drafting of a new anti-crisis package has been postponed for two weeks.
Yesterday, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that the new anti-crisis plan must be ready by December 20 (the previous deadline was December 5), and that budgetary anti-crisis calculations for 2009 and 2010-2012 are to begin on December 16 (rather than December 9).
The Government still does not have the basic document for calculations - a forecast of the Economic Ministry, which should also formalise the results of anti-crisis efforts in late 2008. Minister Elvira Nabiullina is not yet prepared to announce them.
Prime Minister Putin yesterday postponed the start of the anti-crisis budget process for two weeks, just as Kommersant had expected. According to the newspaper's information, the meeting of the government commission on the budget has been postponed to December 16 from December 9, and the announcement of a new anti-crisis plan to December 20, from December 5.
The main reason is the absence of the Economic Ministry's macroeconomic calculations. Yesterday, the Economic Ministry put off the deadline for submitting a reviewed forecast of the country's socio-economic development in 2009 and the subsequent three years. The original deadline was December 1.
The Economic Ministry has made initial calculations, but Minister Nabiullina has not signed them.
On December 1, Deputy Economic Minister Andrei Klepach told the Vedomosti daily that he had proposed using the worst-case scenario when calculating the 2009 budget. That scenario forecasts a plunge of economic growth from 6.7% of the GDP to 3.5%, a weakening of the rouble from 24.7 roubles to $1 to 32-35 roubles, and inflation growth of 12.5-15% instead of the earlier planned 8.5%.
Still, the figures are not official without Ms Nabiullina's signature.
A press officer of the Economic Ministry said yesterday, "We will not submit the forecast today. The document will be forwarded to the Government by the end of the week."
Mr Klepach declined to comment.
The Finance Ministry and the Government cannot make plans without a forecast. The government staff and the Finance Ministry refuse to make their own forecasts, for departmental reasons and because of the distribution of powers in the Government.
Ms Nabiullina's failure to provide the forecast has affected Mr Putin's schedule. The Prime Minister expected to demonstrate his quick reaction to economic challenges this week.
The schedule included a televised question-and-answer session on December 4, a conference on the new anti-crisis plan on December 5 (see Kommersant of November 27), and a meeting of the budget commission on 9. Cuts in current spending were to follow.
But now, Mr Putin will be able to hold only the televised session, and will have to review his other plans.
The economic departments received new instructions yesterday. The Government's press service published the Prime Minister's order, according to which the anti-crisis plan should be made public on December 20, while the Finance Ministry is to submit "proposals on the redistribution of budget funds between 2008 and the planned period of 2009-2010" to the Government by December 15.
The idea is to cut short-term budgetary spending and possibly postpone it until later periods. The ministries of finance, economics, regional development, industry and trade, and transport have been instructed to present their proposals on streamlining projects financed from the Investment Fund by December 15.
By December 5, the Economics Ministry must submit its proposals "on concentrating the Investment Fund's financial resources on projects that are in the final stages of their implementation, as well as on projects underway in regions that have the potential for problems due to changes in the employment structure."
The Investment Fund, used to finance infrastructure projects, is one of the ideological achievements of the Economic Development Ministry and a key element of the plan for the gradual transition to an innovation economy.
The Government and experts are not sure Mr Putin's new instructions will be implemented on schedule.
"A crisis calls for an adequate response, which implies at least two things: a rapid reaction and a maximally clear action plan," Agvan Mikaelyan, director general of the Finekspertiza company, said. "There is no comprehensive and clear programme, but rather five plans and a fierce struggle among their proponents."
Igor Nikolayev, chief strategic analyst at the FBK accounting and business advisory services firm, said the economic dynamics in Russia in 2009 would definitely be negative.
The Economics Ministry's current budget development scenarios are relatively optimistic, yet they admit that GDP growth will slow down and that the budget plan should take this into account.
Politically, this means that the anti-crisis measures recommended by the Ministry in September-November 2008 have proved to be largely ineffective.
