The transcript of Yevgeny Kiselyov's radio programme of November 28, 2008
CRISIS TO BREAK VERTICAL POWER STRUCTURE
MAIN TOPIC: WHY PUTIN STEPPED DOWN
A week after the United Russia party congress, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's speech sounds much like a pre-election one. The Prime Minister is getting ready for the new elections, assuming the role of a triumphant and capable person who will handle the economic crisis, experts say. Putin is promising budget inflows and tax reduction - but in doing so he is running a great risk, as no one is able to make a shrewd guess at oil prices, which are now lower than those listed in the budget. OPEC members and Russia could mutually introduce oil extraction limits and increase the price of an oil barrel - and the state of affairs will turn disastrous if they do not.
The situation might not be about the early voting or the 2012 presidential elections in Russia. Some of the Kremlin's political scientists have mentioned the early parliamentary elections, saying they are a common way of garnering more legitimacy for the new political policy and the people's support of strict anti-crisis measures.
Political consultants claim President Dmitry Medvedev will still have control, saying this Medvedev-Putin tandemocracy has proved to be rather efficient for the country's future revival, and the prolongation of the presidential term is just a tool to counterbalance and protect the new political system.
However, those hard-headed sceptics who forecast Mr Putin's imminent return to the presidency seem correct as well. Eventually, the truth will be revealed - yet in case Putin returns to the presidency, the reasons why he steps down at all may remain a mystery, much like the mystery of Ivan IV of Russia, who abdicated in favour of a Simeon Bekbulatovich, khan of the Khanate of Qasim, for a year back in 1575.
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WEEK'S ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND FAILURES
The appointment of Alexander Voloshin as an independent director of the board of Norilsk Nickel could be considered his achievement. For a long time, Voloshin remained in the background, but he has now become the figure able to act as a mediator in the not-so-simple relations between the company's major shareholders, Vladimir Potanin and Oleg Deripaska.
Meanwhile, Rosneft president Sergei Bogdanchikov is in the red, with the company's debt to foreign creditors amounting to $20 billion, or half of Rosneft's value. The company's share capital has reduced from September's $93 billion to the current $40 billion - yet Bogdanchikov says Rosneft will be able to refund its debts.
Economic Development and Trade Minister Elvira Nabiullina can be glad: the Ministry-developed programme for Russia's long-term social and economic development through 2020 has been approved by Prime Minister Putin, even despite the programme's discord with the budget forecast for inflation. The Finance Ministry suggested that the programme's passing be postponed until 2009, but the Economic Development and Trade Ministry's arguments proved more solid.
Samara Region Governor Vladimir Artyakov, meanwhile, has been hard-hit by recent events - the murder of Sergei Zhilkin, former Mayor of Togliatti and president of Togliatti State University, and the attempted murder of Lyubov Drozdova, chairwoman of the Samara regional court.
PUTIN UNDERESTIMATES SCOPE OF CRISIS, EXPERT SAYS
The script of Yevgeny Kiselyov's talk with Nikolai Petrov, expert at the Carnegie Moscow Centre.
Yevgeny Kiselyov: Do you think the global economic crisis is strengthening the Kremlin's positions? And who is actually ruling the country?
Nikolai Petrov: I suppose the Kremlin is losing positions amid the crisis due to fewer resources being available. Regardless of its wish, it will have to grant more freedom to other players, particularly to the country's regional political elites. As for the country's ruler - I believe there is no Medvedev-Putin tandemocracy, no alliance of two equals in this "tandem bicycle". It is Putin who wheels, while Medvedev seems to be in the child's seat - that is the reason no conflicts occur between them. So far, Medvedev has neither his own team nor real resources.
Yevgeny Kiselyov: What is the evidence for a growing range of problems in Russia's regions?
Nikolai Petrov: The facts reveal that the issues are snowballing at a frightening rate and the crisis is spreading deeper. So far, we have talked about major banks and corporations, with the Kremlin able to make certain decisions to rescue them; now, the crisis has started to affect medium-size businesses as well. In this situation, the authorities are unable take actions concerning tens of thousands of companies, and can only delegate part of their authority to the regional administrations. I see refederalisation as the only possible option.
Yevgeny Kiselyov: Do you think regional officials are prepared to take on such a responsibility?
Nikolai Petrov: The officials seem scared, but I suppose they should make fast decisions in the crisis, and in case a governor cannot do it, there is always someone to replace him. I do not think that the regional political elites will inevitably have more independence. If the Kremlin is disaffected with a governor's activities, they try to substitute him - now, with the crisis spreading, competition among regional officials is bound to occur. I believe that the system of direct gubernatorial appointment will soon be in demand.
Yevgeny Kiselyov: Why has the prolongation of the presidential term been introduced?
Nikolai Petrov: This is a safeguard measure in case early elections occur. The government will need a contingency option if the crisis turns out to be more serious than it is now, social protests grow, and Putin and United Russia's ratings plummet. I believe that there will be no alternative to the early elections and Putin's return to the presidency. When this will happen is not clear yet - but rather soon, I believe.
Yevgeny Kiselyov: How is it possible for the President or Prime Minister's ratings to plummet if they are created by the mass media anyway?
Nikolai Petrov: What you've said makes sense in a stable situation when living standards are improving. In a crisis, this won't work.
Yevgeny Kiselyov: If we are to believe TV reports, then the situation is such that people's living conditions have worsened as the overconfident US politicians in power have allowed the global economy to collapse - while the Russian President and Prime Minister are doing their best to save the situation, like galley slaves; and if they weren't, it would be much worse.
Nikolai Petrov: The media influence can work only to a certain extent, and we are already reaching this point. The Kremlin is trying hard to keep the ratings up, not realising that this financial bubble is going to pop - and the higher the ratings, the worse they will fall. The government is not telling people that the situation is serious, but is instead trying to create the illusion that these hardships are temporary. This is like a narcosis, but any narcosis effect has to end sooner or later.
Yevgeny Kiselyov: Will the government initiate the early elections procedure to remain in power for the next six years once they realise the President and Prime Minister's ratings are unstable?
Nikolai Petrov: On the contrary, early elections will be required for substituting the President when there is an urgent necessity to retain the system.
Yevgeny Kiselyov: It's been six months since Medvedev assumed the presidential office. How much do you think the crisis has ruined his game?
Nikolai Petrov: I believe that Putin failed to evaluate the situation properly. A year ago, when Putin said he would take the job of Prime Minister, some experts wondered whether it would be a political suicide to take the post prior to the crisis. Putin underestimated the scope of the crisis - so now, the alternative of early presidential elections seems rather inevitable.
Yevgeny Kiselyov: Still, the country's top officials will run a great risk in calling for early elections, as the voting should occur at least three month after the calling, and anything can happen within these three months.
Nikolai Petrov: The government runs a risk after the early elections as well anyway, since there is always a chance of emergency. This is how I see the core of the political knot. The country's government is facing a number of difficulties that cannot be handled within the current political model. I am not talking about those slight changes or the political reform package that Medvedev mentioned in his address, but about the necessity for profound constitutional changes.
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Listen to "Power" with Yevgeny Kiselyov at 8 pm every Friday on Ekho Moskvy Radio.
