Konstantin Gaaze, Artyom Vernidub, Darya Guseva
The United Russia congress answered the main question: Mr Putin remains the Prime Minister.
The delegates to the congress were guessing who would be the next President. Mr Putin, said deputy Iosif Kobzon. "I have to think. I can't answer off the top of my head. There is still a lot of time ahead," answered gymnast Alina Kabayeva. She has not yet decided whether she prefers Mr Putin or current President Dmitry Medvedev, but she is in favour of a longer presidential term. "Six years is just right. You see, it takes nine hours just to fly to Vladivostok."
Mr Kobzon said that Mr Putin would be back in three years. "We have a young and healthy President, who will serve out his full term and gain a lot of experience," Kobzon said. "And how will he apply his experience?" Mr Kobzon was asked. "At the Council of Ministers," Kobzon replied promptly.
Since November 5, when Dmitry Medvedev delivered his state of the nation address, the only question discussed by the bureaucrats has been who and, more importantly, when, the next person will be elected for the six-year term. While Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev evaded the question, the Government was abuzz with speculation as to who would be the new Prime Minister, as there was a growing sense that Mr Putin would quit. Simultaneously, the economic crisis was becoming ever more real: oil prices plummeted and the rouble exchange rate went down. All this uncertainty lasted for three weeks. Now it is clear that Putin will not quit the Government, at least not just yet.
Mr Putin's speech to the party congress was in fact his first address to the nation since the crisis began in September. Mr Putin was the first to admit there was a crisis.
The world crisis is a resilience test for Russia, a challenge, the Prime Minister said, but the message seemed to be that Russia had indeed fallen on hard times.
"He cannot afford to quit now," says political analyst Konstantin Simonov. It would look odd. The delegates gathered that Mr Putin would remain in his post. "He is upping the ante," a Kremlin source commented. "He has assumed the political responsibility".
WE ARE NOT AFRAID OF FLATTERING WORDS
Before the congress began - before Mr Putin delivered his address - all the delegates were asked whether they thought that Mr Putin would become a card-carrying party member. This question was used as the basis for even more far-reaching conclusions: if he accepted party membership he would, after all, resign as Prime Minister. Otherwise, how would the Putin Government report to the Duma that he would effectively head as the party's leader and now formal party member?
"He wears two hats," First Deputy Speaker Oleg Morozov explained. "He will report while wearing the Prime Minister's hat."
While Mr Putin was half an hour late to the congress which put him at the head of the list of candidates for the Duma, he was only fifteen minutes late for this congress. The setting was the same as then: plastic chairs surrounded the arena on which the podium stood, so that the speaker had his back not only to the presidium, but to more than half of the congress delegates. Mr Medvedev and Mr Putin sat in the centre. Mr Putin chaired the proceedings himself. He asked himself whether the delegates had any proposals regarding the agenda and the rules of procedure, and asked whether there were any remarks or additions and put the agenda to the vote.
Mr Medvedev said nothing of interest in his speech. He walked to the podium with a spring in his step, thanked United Russia for its work, called on it to help the nation fight the crisis, and referred to it as the main party. He praised the deputies for voting promptly. "The governing party," Medvedev concluded, and trippingly went back to his seat. His speech obviously was not the highlight of the programme.
After Mr Putin's speech, it became clear that the crisis is here after all, and the governors on the fringes enjoyed telling journalists how they were coping. Valentina Matviyenko and Yuri Luzhkov said they had set up crisis management headquarters.
"I am leaving the congress in an optimistic mood, a pragmatic kind of optimism," Ms Matviyenko said. "I don't mind using flattering words," echoed Luzhkov. "I liked the speeches of Mr Medvedev and Mr Putin. I liked the dynamism and the confidence with which will cope with all the challenges of this crisis, which came to Russia from the US." "Bringing whole milk from abroad is not right," Yegor Stroyev, the Oryol Governor, added, sounding off on matters that were closest to his heart.
"We very much want it to happen, but, believe me, there is no need to rush things," Deputy Speaker Morozov said after it became clear that Putin had not become a formal member of the party. A Kremlin source said that the question of Putin's party membership was discussed before the CONGRESS in connection with the municipal elections that will be held in March. Almost 60% of municipalities will be involved. The party has always done poorly in elections at this level, and to cap it all off, the situation in the country is complicated. Eventually, it was decided that Mr Putin's freedom to manoeuvre should not be sacrificed to gain the party majority in the municipalities.
EVERYONE SHOULD CALM DOWN AND WORK
The new party programme written at the Duma, to be adopted at the congress, was rejected by Mr Putin back on November 7, after Medvedev's address to the nation. He said that all the main theses of the President's address had to be included.
"We do not expedite its adoption," Yuri Shuvalov, Deputy Head of the General Council's Presidium said publicly on the same day. In reality, Mr Putin already knew that he would need the party rostrum for a different purpose. As a Kremlin source explains, "the party was used as a forum for making an announcement". The Government prepared a draft anti-crisis programme that Mr Putin eventually presented to the congress.
The package of measures was ready two weeks ago, a member of the Government Office confirmed: "Everyone was working hard counting the money, what we could and could not afford." Eventually, the message was that in spite of the crisis, the state has the wherewithal, but in reality, Mr Putin hadn't released any funds to anyone.
"So far the bailout package is lean, but we have no money for a bigger one," a Government source said, commenting on the Prime Minister's anti-crisis ideas. The fiscal and financial measures Mr Putin proposed will not make any serious difference, analysts and businessmen concluded, and Mr Putin sidestepped the most acute problem of cutting the VAT. He may say something about it if oil prices grow, a Government source says.
Just about all the main proposals on supporting the sectors that Mr Putin unveiled to the party congress had already been discussed by the Cabinet with the representatives of these sectors: the oil and defence industries and small business. Thus, Mr Putin's speech, ostensibly devoted to economics, ended up with a purely political message: "Everyone should calm down and work."
It would be logical to assume that during the two weeks preceding the congress, Mr Putin was preoccupied with the main question: whether or not to step down as Prime Minister in connection with the crisis. To quit would be dangerous because it would demonstrate weakness. Mr Putin was weighing the risks, the Kremlin source claimed. When he looked at the calculations prepared by the Government, he decided there was a chance of weathering the crisis.
"Mr Putin would then claim the credit for conquering the crisis, boosting his approval rating," said political analyst Dmitry Badovsky.
On the eve of the congress, the crisis management headquarters had a meeting at Mr Medvedev's country residence to discuss the economic situation and Mr Putin's speech, the Kremlin press service revealed with unexpected candour. Our Kremlin source confirmed that this was true: "They did numbers and estimates and examined the situation." By that time, all the political decisions had been made. "Talk about a [possible] job change for Mr Putin is frowned upon in the party," says a Duma deputy representing United Russia.
The last item on the congress agenda was the presentation of a new party website. Boris Gryzlov pressed a button on the keyboard that started an advertising spot accompanied by a sound like the growling of a bear: the party will now have its own social network, blogs under the heading "Den", and even weather forecasts.
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THE CHAIRMAN'S GIFTS
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin unveiled a large package of discounts and proposals at the United Russia party congress. In spite of the crisis, Mr Putin had something to offer business and ordinary people.
FOR BUSINESS
A cut of the profit tax from 24% to 20%
Loans and subsidies to small business in the amount of 30 billion roubles
An income tax cut on small business from 15% to 5%
Speedy refund of part of the VAT
Simplified procedure for starting a new business
FOR ORDINARY PEOPLE
Doubling of the deductible part of the tax on an acquired apartment
Increase in unemployment monthly benefits from 3,400 roubles to 4,900 roubles
Increase in the public sector wage fund by 30%
Tax exemption on money the employer pays for medical insurance
Increased pensions for those born before 1962