Nikolai Zlobin
Dmitry Medvedev's speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington came as a surprise for the US establishment. The audience witnessed a different Medvedev. This was not the statesman who had given a speech the day after the US presidential elections that included statements on Russia's foreign policy and that were taken by many as anti-American both in Russia and outside the country.
In Washington, Medvedev made a candidly pro-US speech. Many of his statements drew back major points made by then-President Vladimir Putin in Munich. Medvedev actually sounded opposed to Putin, disappointing those who support a confrontation between Russia and the US. So what are the reasons for this change?
Not only did Medvedev confess his profound respect for the US as a nation, but he also called the country a superpower, giving a surprising compliment to George Bush saying his administration put much effort into establishing a firm foundation for the present Russian-US relations. The Russian President failed to make the traditional accusations blaming the US for the current global economic crisis, saying that the breakdown does have some advantages, such as the opportunity for establishing a new global financial architecture.
In fact, the Russian President fully disowned the well-known statement which claims that Russia seeks certain privileged interests in other regions, which was one of the five principles of Medvedev's foreign policy voiced last summer. That statement was taken by the world as Moscow's claim to establish its own area of influence and as a subject for conflict with Washington, which does not recognise the concept of sphere of influence.
Now, Medvedev specified that he had not meant establishing Russia's specific area of influence but "primary interests" in certain countries, which include a number of European states and "possibly" the US. By elaborating on this, the President instantly deactivated the "time bomb" in Russian-US relations he had previously laid.
Medvedev's statement on the "confidence crisis" as the major issue of Russian-US relations was the first sign of Moscow's return from its hardheaded passive-aggressive position towards the US acknowledging political reality. There is no anti-Americanism in Russia, Medvedev said, but only mutual misunderstanding. The President even admitted the necessity for a true partnership between the two countries.
Medvedev moved the idea of Moscow's possible turn from Putin's statements in Munich to reality by saying that his concept of the new European security architecture does not mean changing existing structures such as NATO, with Moscow intending to develop partner relations and discuss Russia's possible entrance into the organisation.
This "moderate optimism", as the Russian President called the current state of the Russian-US relations, has led to speculation and doubt among many US politicians.
Some immediately claimed this has to be Medvedev's image "for export", all the more so as his speech received scarce attention from the Russian media. As many in the US political elite suspect, this has to be the old Soviet tradition of politicians saying one thing to Russian citizens and another to foreign leaders. They say it is not reasonable to take what Medvedev says seriously since this has to be the next Russian trick, adding that Barack Obama was right in not hurrying to meet with the Russia President.
At the same time, others concluded that the Russian authorities have at last began to realise the actual scope of the current economic crisis and the country's inability to handle it without improving its relations with the United States. According to those, Russia is becoming afflicted by the fact the country has slipped far down on the list of Washington's foreign policy priorities, with Medvedev desperately trying to crank up Russia's ratings in the eyes of US leaders who have the anti-crisis package on their hands.
Good relations between Russia and the US are much more important for the former than for the latter, they say. The lower oil prices get, the more conciliatory Moscow's policy will become, with Russian authorities having to actively promote the idea of the two Presidents' meeting in the next few months.
Finally, the remaining part of the US establishment believe that Medvedev is still adrift in search of his presidential personality, influenced by foreign policy advisors he inherited from Putin and by members of his economic team who take pragmatic positions free of ideology and old stereotypes. The President, they say, is quite consistent in his statements on Russia's economic and domestic policy, but that while issuing foreign policy statements he is being tossed to and fro.
Most people in the US foreign policy establishment agree that Medvedev is not a liberal in the Western sense of the term - yet, he can prove to be more real about Russia's foreign policy as many might expect, able to step over the August 2008 events and begin to develop his own foreign policy instead of continuing to lead "Putin's wars" he has nothing to do with. In any case, the question "Who is Mr Medvedev?" seems more than timely, the answer being not so obvious as many thought.
