Vladimir Putin arriving in Chisinau to forgive Vladimir Voronin
The CIS Heads of Government Council is meeting in Chisinau today. The event may become a turning point in the history of the Commonwealth. It is expected to adopt a long-term economic development strategy to strengthen the deteriorating alliance of the post-Soviet states. The meeting is also important because Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is visiting Moldova for the first time since Chisinau refused to accept the Transdnester peace settlement sponsored by Mr Putin. Kommersant reporter Vladimir Solovyov tried to find out whether Mr Putin has "forgiven" Mr Voronin.
To remember everything
The CIS Heads of Government arrived in Chisinau yesterday. Included in the agenda is the adoption of a CIS economic strategy through 2020. Last month, the Strategy was approved by the Presidents of the member states, who instructed their Prime Ministers to finalize and adopt the document. The Strategy calls for the member states to complete all the programmes and initiatives proposed during the previous 17 years of the Commonwealth's existence, within the next 12 years.
Specifically, the document prescribes the creation of a CIS free trade zone, establishment of a unified economic space and common markets for agricultural products, as well as the creation of international transport corridors across the Commonwealth countries. These measures are intended to strengthen the Commonwealth, which is going through difficult times. After the August war in South Ossetia, Georgia has started process to exit from CIS.
Troubling news also came from Uzbekistan, which has suspended its participation in the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC), another integrationist project.. Tashkent sent only a deputy Prime Minister instead of Prime Minister Shafkat Mirziyaev to the Chisinau summit. Hence, the Council meeting in Chisinau is historic in a sense that its outcome may either confirm or refute the rumors of the beginning of the end for the CIS.
There is yet another reason for the meeting to be considered an extraordinary event - Vladimir Putin is visiting Chisinau for the first time in 6 years.
The Russian Prime Minister must be having mixed feelings toward Chisinau. He was in Chisinau on his 50th birthday on October 7, 2002, attending the CIS summit as the then President of Russia. Moldovan President Voronin gave him a gift, a crystall crocodile. Explaining his choice for the gift he said: "This is the only animal that does not retreat."
Since then, however, Mr Putin has not visited Moldova, because on November 25, 2003, Chisinau rejected the Russian-sponsored peace plan for the Transdnestr conflict, also known as the "Kozak Memorandum" (the plan was prepared by the then head of the Russian presidential administration Dmitry Kozak)
Under pressure from the West and Moldovan opposition, which organized mass protests with burning of Russian flags and Mr Putin's portraits, President Vladimir Voronin refused to sign the proposed settlement plan. As a result, Mr Putin called off his visit to Chisinau to oversee the signing of the memorandum by President Voronin and the Head of the Transdnetr republic Igor Smirnov.
That incident spoiled the relationship between Moscow and Chisinau for a long six years. Moldova proclaimed a course for integration into the European Union, and in response Russia banned imports of Moldovan wine and increased the gas price for Chisinau. Only recently have the sides been able to mend fences, after Vladimir Voronin shifted his policies toward a new rapprochement with Russia. Mr Voronin abandoned plans to join NATO and even hinted that his country could leave GUAM, an organization uniting Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova, and known for its anti-Russian agenda.
No one is forgotten
Mr Putin arrived in Chisinau late last night, and Moldovan authorities made every effort to demonstrate that he was welcome there. Unlike other heads of government, who were met by Foreign Minister Andrey Stratan, Moldovan Prime Minister Zinaida Grechanaya personally greeted Mr Putin at the airport. Today, Mr Putin will hold meetings with Ms Grechanaya and Mr Voronin. The Transdnestr conflict will be the main topic of their discussions.
Moldovan opposition was also prepared for Mr Putin's visit. On the day of his arrival, the Liberal party rallied about 100 of its supporters at the Russian embassy. The protesters were waiving EU flags and displaying banners: "Russia, Withdraw Your Troops and Armaments from Moldova!", "We Want To Be With Europe and We Are Against Occupation." They were whistling and shouting: "Putin, you are not welcome here; go home and take Voronin with you! Buy our wine, and take Voronin with you for free!"
Yesterday's rally, although not as numerous as the ones organized in 2003 by the leader of the Christian-Democratic party and currently the Deputy Speaker of the parliament Yury Roshka, still reminded of the events of 5 years ago.
Moscow is still very much aware of the diplomatic defeat it suffered in 2003. When commenting on the prospects for a Transdnestr peace settlement, Foreign Minister Lavrov always mentions that a compromise solution is possible if it is based on the principles of the "Kozak Memorandum."
During the past half a year, Russia was able to reactivate the peace settlement process on the Transdnestr issue. In April, Moscow arranged for Vladimir Voronin and Igor Smirnov to sit down at the negotiating table for the first time in many years. Following the war in the Caucasus, the Kremlin doubled its efforts to settle the Transdnestr conflict. Late in August and in early September, President Medvedev held separate meetings with Mr Voronin and Mr Smirnov. The Russian President said that Moscow stood for a peace settlement based on the territorial integrity of Moldova.
The Kremlin has sent a clear message to Transdnestr that it should not be encouraged by the example of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the independence of which Moscow has recognized. According to the information obtained by Kommersant, the follow-up plan proposed by Moscow is for Vladimir Voronin and Igor Smirnov to hold another bilateral meeting. Then, in the presence of President Dmitry Medvedev, they will sign a joint declaration on the principles of the peace settlement.
After that, a process of working out a special status for Transdnestr will begin. Also, an international, legally binding document will be prepared to establish military and political neutrality of Moldova, and most importantly its non-membership in NATO. However, the plan is not so far being implemented. Mr Voronin and Mr Smirnov have been assuring for a month now of their readiness to meet, but are not in a hurry, accusing each other of an unwillingness to compromise.
Chisinau hopes that Mr Putin's visit will give a new impetus to the settlement process, which will be beneficial to the ruling Communist party of Moldova. The party is facing parliamentary elections to be held in March. The elected parliament will vote for a new president to replace the incumbent Vladimir Voronin, leader of the Communists. By the way, the latter makes no secret that he is impatient to meet Mr Putin.
No one has forgotten
Mr Putin may in fact meet Chisinau's expectations. Indeed, it was during his presidency that the a Transdnestr settlement plan was first proposed by Moscow. The question remains, however, whether he is willing to provide such a generous "election gift" to Moldovan Communists who have previously let him down. The latest actions by Moscow may suggest that it has forgiven Mr Voronin the failure to sign the "Kozak Memorandum." The Moldovan President has been received at the Kremlin on numerous occasions and he was allowed to reappear in Russian media after a long absence.
On the eve of the summit, the deputy head of the official ITAR-TASS news agency Mikhail Gusman recorded an extended interview with Mr Voronin. It will be broadcast by the "Rossiya" TV channel's "Formula Vlasti" (Formula of Power) programme. Many other Russian news agencies and journalists interviewed Mr Voronin over the last several days. This is quite a change considering that in recent years he rarely appeared in Russian media and mostly in negative contexts.
Still, this has yet to affect the settlement process. People from the inner circle of the Moldovan President who were interviewed by Kommersant are concerned that Moscow may have changed its mind and is no longer going to push for a speedy settlement. "As on previous occasions, everything depends only on Russia. Following the events in Georgia, there was an excellent opportunity to settle the conflict, and the West could have done nothing but accept it. It would have also been to the benefit of Russia, who would have proven that it was capable of solving conflicts over territory through diplomacy. This opportunity is still there," a senior official in Moldovan government told Kommersant.
According to the information obtained by Kommersant from the Russian presidential administration, the settlement is not likely to happen before the elections in Moldova. "This is a delicate issue, and it should not be politicized. Considerations of political expediency are not appropriate here," a source at the Administration told Kommersant.
Also skeptical about an imminent unification of Moldova is the deputy speaker of the country's parliament Yury Roshka. Five years ago he spared no effort to prevent the signing of the "Kozak Memorandum."
"The "siloviki," who currently hold the reigns in Russia, are rather tough guys, and they are not going to forgive Mr Voronin. Besides, the current Russian leadership pursues its own interests in the context of the Transdnestr conflict. Ideally, it would like to have a military base here. Look at the map: the EU and NATO have further expanded since Kozak times and reached the borders of Moldova. Ukraine is eager to join NATO, and it remains to be seen whether Russia is able to outplay America there, - MrRoshka told Kommersant. - A Russian diplomat told me openly: America is in Romania, so we will have to stay here."
This time, however, Mr Roshka will not organize street demonstrations during Mr Putin's visit. "In 2003, Mr Putin sent Mr Kozak to Moldova with a document, which would have legalized Russian military presence in the country through 2020. On top of that, the "Kozak Memorandum" was violating our constitution. It said: the Federal Republic of Moldova is the legal successor of the former Republic of Moldova. What would be the reaction of a sane politician, who is told: here is a piece of paper to sign, which will end the existence of your country?" said Mr Roshka. He does not expect any "unpleasant surprises" from Mr Putin's current visit. "Russia may come up with all kinds of proposals, but in my opinion, it is much more cautious in its initiatives as it does not need any new diplomatic fiascos," Mr Roshka believes.