Maria Tsvetkova, Nadezhda Ivanitskaya, Irina Reznik, Natalya Kostenko, Vedomosti
Medvedev extends the term for the future president
Mid-course correction
President Dmitry Medvedev has announced an extension of the terms of the President and the State Duma. It is said at the Kremlin that the reform was conceived during now-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's presidency and that he will be its main beneficiary.
In his first Address to the Federal Assembly, President Medvedev proposed to extend the presidential term to six years and that of the State Duma to five years. In addition, he wants the Government to make annual reports to the lower house "on the results of its activities and on issues raised directly by parliament".
Extending the presidential term would require amendments to Article 81 of the Russian Constituion, and extending the term of the State Duma - amendments to Article 96. Introducing the practice of government reports, the President said, would require that the State Duma be given supervisory functions with regard to the executive branch, making it necessary to change Article 103. "This is not about constitutional reform, but about adjustments to the Constitution," Mr Medvedev assured his audience. "These are truly important but still only elaborating amendments that do not affect the political and legal essence of the existing institutions."
His view has been challenged by former Constitutional Court judge Tamara Morshchakova, who says it is, if anything, a constitutional reform, in that it changes the relationship between Government and Parliament and changes the terms of the main power institutions. She says that any change of the tough constitution - and Russia does indeed have a tough constitution that does not lend itself easily to change - is a constitutional reform. To prolong the term of the President and the lower house and to introduce the provision on the government reporting to parliament, federal constitutional laws on constitutional amendments should be passed, Morshchakova said. She also explained the procedure, saying that the amendments must get two-thirds of the votes in the lower house, three-quarters of the votes in the upper house and two-thirds of the votes in regional parliaments.
Because the procedure is time-consuming, amendments to the Constitution will most likely be passed next year, a source at the President's Executive Office said.
The change of term does not apply to the incumbent President and the current State Duma, presidential aide Larisa Brycheva pointed out.
The move is not Mr Medvedev's improvisation, as the reform was conceived under Mr Putin by first deputy head of the President's Executive Office Vladislav Surkov, a member of the President's staff said. The plan of extending the terms was prepared back in 2007 with Mr Putin in mind, a source close to the President's Executive Office disclosed. It envisaged the election of a successor who would bring in the necessary constitutional amendments and unpopular social reforms before Mr Putin came back to the Kremlin for a longer term; introducing amendments for oneself would be unethical.
Vedomosti's source suggested that, under such a scenario, President Medvedev could resign before the end of his term on the grounds that the Constitution has been amended, in which case presidential elections could be held as early as 2009. This would separate the presidential and parliamentary elections, as suggested by Mr Putin. The two elections will be held simultaneously in 2021, after Strategy-2020 is completed.
"I see no reason why Mr Putin should return to the post of President next year, since the term of the incumbent President will not run out in 2009," said the Prime Minister's press secretary Dmitry Peskov.
Another source close to the President's Executive Office noted that Mr Putin's election campaign has in fact been launched now that he has his own website. On November 20, he will deliver a policy speech to the United Russia Party, which he chairs, and will then communicate live with grassroots groups through a network of public reception offices (his new version of the live video link with the President).
Mr Medvedev has not used this form of reaching out to the population and furthermore, does not plan to use it, members of his staff said. Mr Putin has caught up with Mr Medvedev in terms of the number of times he is mentioned in the media, according to the Medialogia company (see chart).
A source in the United Russia leadership has suggested that extending the terms of the Duma and the President is merely a pretext for a sweeping revision of the Constitution, one that may eventually lead to the introduction of a parliamentary republic in Russia. In fact, Mr Medvedev has already proclaimed a parliamentary republic, a Federation Council member said.
The fact that the terms of the State Duma and the President are being increased by different numbers of years optimises the timing of Duma and presidential elections, since two back-to-back campaigns are very taxing on the electorate, a member of the CEC, Yelena Dubrovina, said.
Now there will be not one but two years of populism, which is very hard on the budget, a Finance Ministry official laments. The need to report to the State Duma makes things more difficult for the Government, said First Vice Premier Igor Shuvalov, but it fits the constitutional model because, for example, the confirmation of the Prime Minister by parliament is also a form of control over the Government.
The extension of powers will consist only of the mandatory annual report, without any changes in the composition of the Government, because it is unlikely that members of United Russia will criticise their party's leader, a Government official said.
Regional parliaments are already elected for a five-year term, United Russia's Vyacheslav Volodin noted. The reform will make it possible to adopt major laws more confidently and establish interaction with the executive branch, said Alexei Chesnakov, former deputy head of the Presidential Executive Office's domestic policy department.
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Their presidents
The presidents of parliamentary republics such as Italy and Israel are elected for five years (in Israel, only for one term). In the parliamentary republic of Germany, the President is elected for five years (for no more than two terms in a row). In the presidential republic of France, the term is five years (it was seven years prior to 2002). In Mexico, it is six years (no more than one term).