Kommersant Vlast: "Saakashvili is a failed Putin"
One of the leaders of the Republican Party, DAVID BERDZENISHVILI, has been telling Olga Allenova why the Georgian opposition plans to take to the streets on November 7.
"Most see the war as Saakashvili's brave move"
Question: The opposition charges Mikhail Saakashvili with sending troops to South Ossetia. However, the authorities claim that was the only option.
Answer: Saakashvili says that on August 8, he responded to the attack of the Russian-Ossetian forces. We, and the whole of Europe, say that the war began on August 7 and that Saakashvili initiated the final spiral of tensions. Everybody saw that on August 7, almost the whole of the Georgian Army was moving towards South Ossetia. Everybody saw that Tskhinvali was shelled for several hours on Saakashvili's orders. It is because of this that we are where we are. After the South Ossetian disaster, we lost the Akhalgor District, which has never been a conflict zone, but now there are Russian troops, right up to our federal highway; for all I know, they will soon put up a banner on a hill over there that reads, "Putin is our President".
Q: But international public opinion maintains that Russia's response to Saakashvili's actions was disproportionate. Do you still believe that he is guilty?
A: Russia's response to Saakashvili's actions was indeed disproportionate. Saakashvili fell into a trap. I am aware that Georgia is less to blame than Russia, but for us, Georgian citizens, it doesn't matter very much how much more Putin is to blame than Saakashvili. For us, the main culprit is Saakashvili, both as an individual and as leader of the collective. Saakashvili lost the war in a day and a half, because that was how long it lasted.
Saakashvili has given a lot of trouble to Europe and America. Pictures of Saakashvili are shown all over the world: the world has seen him chewing his necktie while being interviewed by Western TV channels. While in Gori, Saakashvili was standing before the cameras and then suddenly saw a Russian plane and began running away, followed by his bodyguards. These are repulsive pictures; after such pictures, how can we credit him as the Commander-in-Chief?
I have seen many frames because there were many cameramen from different channels, and not a single camera was held with a trembling hand. For the cameramen, it was business as usual, while the President of the country, the Commander-in-Chief, was running away.
Many in Georgia recalled Shevardnadze in those days. There is not much love for him among the population, but at least Shevardnadze was in Abkhazia under shelling, side-by-side with his troops.
Q: Why did Saakashvili have to move troops into Tskhinvali?
A: The fact is that most people in Georgia see the launching of military operations as an act of bravery on Saakashvili's part. Many believe that, had he succeeded in taking Tskhinvali, even at the cost of heavy casualties, it would have gone down as a huge victory. Tskhinvali has no military significance. Even if the Georgian authorities had ensured Russia's neutrality and remained in Tskhinvali to celebrate victory there, it would have added 10-15 extra kilometers of territory under Georgian control, that's all. The Georgian troops would have no chance to take Dzhava - everybody understands that.
Q: So, do you believe that by his assault on Tskhinvali Saakashvili wanted to boost his approval rating?
A: After two elections, in January and May, which Saakashvili effectively lost, in the absence of internal legitimacy, he decided to make the majority of the people feel that repossessing Tskhinvali was more important than a rigged election. For Saakashvili, Tskhinvali was a PR stunt. As part of the plan to preserve his grip on the country, a coronation of Sanakoyev in Tskhinvali was important for Saakashvili. This was such an obsession with Saakashvili that he took that crazy step and unleashed a war. Where was the guarantee that the Russian authorities would not interfere? At what level of negotiations and with what representative was the issue discussed? If it was a mistake, then it is more than a crime. When a Commander-in-Chief makes such a mistake, he must answer to his people. Therefore, no matter how much Saakashvili stretches his reservoir of credit, it will run out.
Q: Do you believe that he must go?
A: It would be for his own good. The Republican Party does not call for Saakashvili's immediate resignation; it is up to him to decide. However, because he seems to have no intention to retire, we are in favour of gradual change. We are for a new electoral law and a new electoral commission, preferably staffed with Western representatives; we are for a free media, above all, electronic media, and we are for constitutional change. Today, the presidency fully controls all the other branches of power. If these changes come about, an early parliamentary election will be held in May. We believe such a comprehensive approach is the only thing that can rescue the country from its deep crisis.
"We are not going to forgive Saakashvili for August 7."
Q: Does Georgia still have a chance to regain South Ossetia and Abkhazia? Or has it passed the point of no-return?"
A: Not yet, especially in regards to South Ossetia. There are many differences between Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Abkhazia has always been perceived as an autonomous part of Georgia. South Ossetia has never been and will never be perceived as such. South Ossetia is the heart of Georgia. Even before Zviad Gamsakhurdia, there were about 160,000 Ossetians living in Georgia. The largest number of Georgian mixed marriages are with Ossetians: practically every second family in the first, second or third generations.
Georgia's chances are slim, but they exist. One is the democratisation of Georgia. If Georgia manages to establish normal relations with its own people, especially with the opposition, and if Georgia succeeds in creating good economic and democratic conditions, that is, if Georgia manages to make progress as has been seen in Greek Cyprus in recent years, then it may become attractive for the Ossetians. The path to reintegration of South Ossetia thus lies in the democratisation of Georgia, through stability and economic growth. Georgia needs this regardless of whether it results in the reintegration of South Ossetia and Abkhazia into the Georgian state.
Q: But the Georgian authorities seem to be taking steps towards democracy. For example, a parliamentary commission to inquire into the August events has been set up.
A: No, I see no progress so far. Again, we have had no luck with our authorities. It appears that I - both as a person and as a party leader - am involved in the processes of changing the Georgian government. This was the case when the Communist system collapsed in Georgia, when Zviad Gamsakhurdia's authoritarian system was replaced, and then when the Shevardnadze -Abashidze administration was going out. I suspect we will again have to be involved in this process. Saakashvili has, unfortunately, done more harm to Georgia than all the previous presidents and the President of semi-feudal Adzharia taken together.
Saakashvili did not rise to the situation, I have to admit that. I remember that back in early 2004, you asked me if Saakashvili would become Georgia's Putin, and I replied that chances are that he would not. The similarities at the time were only superficial and behavioural. But if asked the same question today, I would answer with the words of a Georgian philosopher who said that Saakashvili is a failed Putin and that Putin is a successful Saakashvili. They are similar, but they have different resources.
In general, I don't think Putin is all that successful, but is simply now in a strong position. Russia, too, is coming to understand that statements such as "Russia is getting up off its knees" cover up an inferiority complex and represent wishful thinking. With an economy that is 2% of the world economy, it is simply not serious to claim a role commensurate with that of Europe, the States or China. The military rhetoric, new ballistic missiles, a victorious war against Georgia - yes, these are temporary successes, but at the end of the day, they deepen Russia's autonomy, not to say isolation from the Western world. In the long run, Russia stands to lose from the strengthening of the Medvedev-Putin tandem and the strengthening of the Cheka system.
Q: Will you join the protest action on November 7?
A: Yes, because we cannot pretend that November 7 never existed in our life. We are not going to forgive Saakashvili for August 7. We believe that November 7 was a prelude to August 7. If there hadn't been November 7, there wouldn't have been August 7. If the US administration had adequately perceived the presidential and parliamentary elections, the events of August 7 would have never occurred.
The situation is much more complex for Saakashvili today. If Obama wins the election, the new US Administration will dissociate itself from Saakashvili, who has been fostered by Bush and Condoleezza Rice and is now becoming an embarrassment. Saakashvili is a spent force for them. He is aware of it, and is afraid of the outcome of the US elections. Of late, another player has emerged in this field, along with the United States and Russia. It is Europe, which confined itself to the role of observer prior to the August war. Since the war, the Euro-Atlantic factor has become more important. I think that if we succeed in offering European countries a common approach for a phased exit from the crisis, which I have already mentioned, then the opposition forces may gain their support.
Q: But the West has always taken the side of Saakashvili. Even now, many countries openly support him.
A: Saakashvili gave Putin's Russia a chance to slap the West in the face, so I don't think that Saakashvili remains a darling of the West, including the US.
Q: What will happen if you fail to bring about the constitutional changes you have mentioned?
A: If this opportunity to improve the situation is not used in the coming months, the situation will deteriorate and it will be decided in the street. When Georgians take to the streets, they topple the government.
